10/28/2008 -- It seems like only yesterday folks were speculating about when, if ever, the 10 Gigabit Ethernet (GigE) market would go supernova.

It wasn't so much a question of whether consumers would adopt bigger pipes; that much is a foregone conclusion. The issue, industry watchers said, was whether buyers would bypass 10 GigE in favor of next-generation technologies, such as 40 GigE or even 100 GigE.

That doesn't seem to be happening, however. According to market watcher Infonetics Research, the 10 GigE market is already sizeable -- amounting to $9.5 billion this year alone -- and is poised for impressive growth going forward.

The upshot, Infonetics reported, is that the 10 GigE segment should "thrive for many years to come," even as customers are starting to pursue 40 GigE adoption plans. For what it's worth, 100 GigE looks to be a long way from mainstream. According to Infonetics, it should begin to take off in 2013.

"A majority of service providers we've spoken to are expecting to invest in 40G until the 100G market is up and running; some providers are hoping to skip the 40G phase altogether, but we don't see that being a viable option, as growing traffic demands are outstripping current capacities and 100G won't reach reasonable price points until about 2012 or 2013," said Principal Analyst and Infonetics Co-Founder Michael Howard in a statement. "When 100G Ethernet arrives, it'll be the next big thing and the most important, because it will last to at least 2025, solving traffic problems for a very long time."

What's driving 10 GigE -- and, for that matter 40 GigE -- adoption? It's the capacity, stupid.

"As corporate applications get more and more bandwidth-intensive and enterprises centralize their resources, a tremendous strain is being put on their networks," noted Matthias Machowinski, directing analyst for enterprise voice and data at Infonetics Research, in a release. According to Machowinski, network managers cite a need for increased capacity as their No. 1 overall initiative.

"[I]t's no surprise...that shipments of 10 [GigE] ports are going through the roof," Machowinski said. "Ethernet switch-based 10 [GigE] port shipments, for example, grew 140 percent in 2007. Growth should remain healthy for years to come, as this is an area where buyers are putting their money where their mouths are."

Over the next few years, Infonetics projected, 40 GigE revenues will grow at a healthy 59 percent annual clip. In 2007, it said, vendors shipped slightly more than 1 million 10 GigE, 40 GigE, and 100 GigE ports on enterprise- and service provider-grade gear; by 2011, Infonetics suggested, that total will reach 7.4 mllion. --Stephen Swoyer