12/5/2001 -- So you want to know what the next big trends in IT certification will be? We don't blame you -- we here at CertCities.com did too. Since we're a plucky bunch (plus, there's all this research lying around our offices that we figured probably should be put to some use), we decided to take this stab at prediciting the 10 hottest certifications for 2002.

By hottest, we're don't mean most popular overall-- frankly, that'd be a little boring, plus you all know what the top certs are anyway. Instead, we're looking at growth, not just in size -- although that's a big part -- but also in reputation and overall gain of industry acceptance. Plus, of course, there's usefulness: What can really make a difference in your career? What will shine brightest?

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As mentioned, we've based these rankings on some actual research. First come the results of our annual reader survey, which was conducted by Wilson Research earlier this year. For each title considered, we compared the number of readers who said they had a particular title with the number of readers who said they would be getting that designation within the next 12 months. We then converted the difference in percentage points into a 20 to 1 scale. Therefore, those with the biggest jump next year, according to you, would get a 20, and those with a smallest would get a 1 (only those that showed a positive difference were scaled.)

Still with us? Good. Next, we have the anecdotal evidence, e.g., the "buzz." What are people saying about particular certs? What do our contributing editors think will match well with the current career opportunities out there? What other recognition have these titles achieved recently? We culled the Web, talked to the experts, and then rated titles on a scale of one to 10, 10 being the most compelling.

And that's how we derived our top 10 picks for the hottest certifications for 2002. For each, you'll find our ranking for both reader interest and buzz, as well as the overall score. As for who made the list -- you're bound to find some surprises here. We did.

#10: Certified Information Systems Security Professional (CISSP)
Vendor: ISC2
Category: Security
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 7
Buzz Score (out of 10): 9
Total: 16

Sure, there are plenty of great security certifications out there. But when it comes to reputation, the CISSP leads the pack, and for good reason -- it's far and away the most difficult to achieve. First, candidates must provide documentation that they have three years of hands-on experience in a particular security specialty. Only then are they given the opportunity to battle the title's monster of an exam (six hours to tackle 250 questions covering a broad range of material-study groups, here you come).

So even though not many of you said you're planning to get this certification next year (thus the low reader interest score of 7 out of 20), it still made into our top 10 based on its buzz (a 9 out of 10 - the highest score we gave to any certification on this list). Security is sizzling and will be even hotter in 2002, and certs that are tough to get are always in demand. All of our experts agreed: For those of you who meet this title's requirements, it's impossible to go wrong with the CISSP.

#9: Sun Certified Java Programmer (SCJP)
Vendor: Sun Microsystems
Category: Programming
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 12
Buzz Score (out of 10): 5
Total: 17

Certification isn't nearly as popular among employers in the programming world as it is within networking --- in programming, you'll rarely see a job listing that asks for any kind of cert. Still, coders worldwide spend hours upon hours studying to achieve this Sun title. Maybe it's personal pride. Maybe it's an "insider" club. Whatever, it seems to be working: We recently talked to Sun about the size of its certification program, and while we're not allowed to publish the actual numbers, we can tell you that we were surprised -- for a title you don't hear too much about, its membership is actually quite large. And from what you told us in our reader survey, this title will only continue to grow in 2002.

#8: Citrix Certified Administrator (CCA)
Vendor: Citrix
Category: Networking
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 11
Buzz Score (out of 10): 7
Total: 18

This Citrix title looks like it will be especially popular next year among those of you already Microsoft certified -- and why not? Certification in Citrix's MetaFrame for Windows technology is seen by many to be a perfect complement to Microsoft's MCSE, IT's most popular title.

CertCities.com Contributing Editor Greg Neilson put the CCA near the top of his hot cert picks (as well as his personal to-do list) because the demand for these professionals is much higher than the supply. "We're finding with our clients that Citrix usage is taking off big time, and we don't have enough staff to cover the incoming requests," he told us.

Contributing Editor Hinne Hettema agrees: "One exam gets you on a hell of a number of contracts. 'Are you Citrix-certified? Just what we need.'" However, he cautions, "The issue is really whether you want to be there. Citrix is synonymous with pain." Ouch!

#7: Network+
Vendor: Computer Technology Industry Association (CompTIA)
Category: Networking
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 16
Buzz Score (out of 10): 4
Total (out of 30): 20

Sure, for those of you MCSEs and CNEs out there, Network+ has little to offer you -- this entry-level, vendor-neutral networking cert covers only the basics. But it seems to do it well, giving it a solid reputation. And when tied with its sister A+ title, it forms a seemingly natural stepping stone for newbies looking to break into the world of IT.

Will this finally be the year of Net+? Based on your interest level, 2002 shouldn't disappoint, especially now that Microsoft is accepting it as partial elective credit for its new MCSA title. While we don't expect Network+ to overtake its hardware siblings' 450,000-plus anytime soon, we do think its growth in 2002 will finally give A+ a run for its money.

#6: Red Hat Certified Engineer (RHCE)
Vendor: Red Hat
Category: Linux
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 14
Buzz Score (out of 10): 7
Total: 21

It's no surprise that a Linux certification made it onto our list for 2002 -- as Hettema put it: "Linux is the next big thing -- has been for the past five years." But why the RHCE? Part of it, no doubt, is the company: Red Hat has the highest market share of any Linux distribution. But what we think puts this title on top is the company's crafting of a high-level program that tests hands-on skills, making it difficult to achieve (and impossible to braindump your way through). If you're an RHCE, you most likely know your stuff.

We think this title will get even bigger in 2002 -- especially if Red Hat continues to expand its number of test centers both in the U.S. and internationally. (You wouldn't believe the number of e-mails we get asking for information on RHCE centers in India!)

By the way, if you're not yet ready for something quite as high-level the RHCE (or maybe you prefer a vendor-neutral approach), you might want to try LPI's Linux Certified Professional program. This entry-to-mid-level title just missed making this year's list; we have a feeling we'll see it join its RHCE compatriot here in 2003.

#5: Microsoft Certified Database Administrator (MCDBA)
Vendor: Microsoft
Category: Database
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 20
Buzz Score (out of 10): 2
Total: 22

Huh? That's what we said when we saw how well the MCDBA did on our reader survey. This certification showed the highest level of growth between the number of readers who said they currently hold this title and those who said they planned to get it in 2002 (13 percent). There was nothing we could do but give it the best reader score possible (20 out of 20) then call up our experts and find out what was going on.

Turns out you wanna-be MCDBAs may be a quiet bunch, but you're not off-base. "Databases are hot," Contributing Editor Damir Bersinic told us. "Think about it-everything everywhere is in some kind of database, and employers who are looking to hire someone to administer their database, on which their corporate intelligence resides, want some assurances that the individual can perform the basic tasks of a DBA and understands how the database works."

Hettema concurred. "Plus, there's not a lot of them around," he added. "That's why people do this. It's fairly easy to become both MCSE and MCDBA-it gives you the 'boutique' aspect."

We stand corrected.

#4: Cisco Certified Network Professional (CCNP)
Vendor: Cisco
Category: Networking
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 16
Buzz Score (out of 10): 7
Total: 23

This mid-level title from Cisco did well on our reader survey, and it has good buzz, giving it a solid enough score to make it this year's #4 cert. "The CCNP is a stepping stone to [Cisco's CCIE], plus it can provide an employer with a reasonable level of confidence that the holder knows how to configure Cisco routers and understands them quite well," said Bersinic, who put this title at the top of his list for hot certs next year. "The holder of a CCNP may not be able to architect a network, but can certainly administer it."

#3: Cisco Certified Network Associate(CCNA)
Vendor: Cisco
Category: Networking
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 18
Buzz Score (out of 10): 6
Total: 24

The CCNA has a 2000/2001 feel to it, at least for us, but according to our reader survey this title will continue to grow wildly in 2002. Even though 11 percent of you already have this certification, another 20 percent of you plan to get it next year.

Why does the CCNA continue to shoot skyward? "So many people still see working with Cisco products as the path to riches," speculated Neilson.

While it's a good program from a good company, we do think there's a chance it will become overdone in 2002, thus we give it only a moderate buzz score of six. Even so, the title still comes in at number three on our list, and who are we to argue with that?

#2: Oracle Certified Professional -- Database Administrator (OCP DBA)
Vendor: Oracle
Category: Database
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 18
Buzz Score (out of 10): 7
Total: 25

Coming in at #2 on our list (and confirming this year's "databases are hot" theme) is Oracle's OCP DBA program. This one surprised us a little as well, but then again, the OCP program almost tripled in size (from 30,000 to 80,000) in the last year, with much of that growth coming from Oracle's flagship DBA title. "It's one steady go-er," commented Hettema. "There's a lot of Oracle around, and it will continue to be around."

"Because companies are looking to transition to Oracle or SQL Server 2000 from other systems that are fading (Informix, Ingres, etc.), an individual with an OCP DBA or MCDBA certification can at least get their foot in the door," Bersinic commented on the database trend. Even so, he cautions, "They will still need to prove they know what they're talking about."

And the #1 hot cert for 2002 is…..

#1: Microsoft Certified Systems Administrator (MCSA)
Vendor: Microsoft
Category: Networking
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 18
Buzz Score (out of 10): 8
Total: 26

No surprise here. This new title actually came out after we held our reader survey, so we conducted a poll on CertCities.com to gauge your interest. All we can say is, wow -- are you all into this cert or what? Forty-five percent of you said you were "very interested", and overall, 75 percent of you said you plan to get this cert, either as an end-goal or as a stop on your way to the MCSE.

Looks like Microsoft is making all the right moves with its creation of this mid-level title. While the true impact of the MCSA remains to be seen (will it replace the MCSE as Microsoft's most-wanted title or just simply be a stepping stone?), we feel confident predicting this title as the hottest certification.

So love 'em or hate 'em, there's our site's official picks! Now comes the best part: your turn. What do you think will reign supreme in 2002? Post your comments below. If you'd rather discuss our picks one-on-one, feel free to e-mail us at editor@certcities.com.

More articles by Becky Nagel:

CertCities.com’s 10 Hottest Certifications for 2006

10 Hottest Certifications for 2005

CertCities.com's 3rd Annual Readers' Choice Awards

Q&A: Novell Certs Go Linux