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The Good Ole Days |
| In the late '90s, IT professionals enjoyed high demand and even higher salaries. For those of you longing for a return to this golden age, Greg Neilson predicts severe disappointment. |
| by Greg Neilson |
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4/30/2002 -- The late '90s were heady times in IT. I lived in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1997 until early 2000, so I was lucky enough to be near the epicenter. Not only was there all of the considerable dotcom activity, but at the same time most other companies were making extensive investments in upgrading their IT infrastructure in preparation for Y2K.
Since the dotcom crash in April 2000, many of us in IT have been wondering when the downturn will end and the "good ole days" will be back again. It's becoming more and more obvious to me that this won't happen -- sure, things will get better than they are today, but we won't ever get back to that unsustainable level of activity we had then.
I'm not trying to pretend that I'm the first to say this – I recall seeing some industry analysts make this point in the middle of last year. However, the recent wave of profit warnings issued by many of the major IT players underlines this premise. I certainly think we'll see some improvement from our current position, but as the IT industry matures we will probably move to a sustainable level of IT activity, a new kind of what we might think of as "normal."This will be the case for investment in IT (hardware, software and professional services), but more to the point for you, our readers, in the employment of IT professionals.
Even though I think things will get better on the IT job scene, the reduced demand for staff relative to the pre-April 2000 levels means that salaries and conditions will continue to be generally less than we had become used to. This isn't to say we'll end up being paid minimum wage, but the drop in demand means that those looking to change jobs may have to accept less than they currently receive now. This also means that those who don't move will find that their current salary may not rise significantly until inflation increases the market pay rates above their current salary level. Given that inflation is relatively low in most major economies nowadays, this could take some time. Either way, this means that real salaries in IT will fall from the previous levels.
Following the same logic through, I also believe that this reduced demand will mean that some of those who were working in IT before may need to give serious consideration about whether they should start to look at other career options outside of IT. Generally speaking, these will have been the poorer performers who only had jobs because their employer had little other choice -- use these people or go without (or pay more to get the people who really could do the job). Now that the employment demand has dropped, these poor performers are being passed over for those who have a demonstrated history of achievement and have a compelling career story to tell. Also, those who haven't kept their skills current will probably also find things very difficult.
I'm not trying to tell everyone that the sky is falling. In the long term, IT will continue to be a good career option, but things probably won't again be as great as they were in the late '90s. We will still be paid well compared to other professions, but not to the levels we have been accustomed. This means we are going to need to adjust our thinking as to what we can reasonable expect in salary and conditions from employers in the future. Perhaps some of us will have some great stories to tell our grandkids – "Sure, those were crazy times in the late 90s, and I was there in the middle of it. Did I ever tell you about . . .?".
What's your view of the road ahead in IT? Please let me know by posting your comments below. 
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Greg Neilson, MCSE+Internet, MCNE, PCLP, is a Contributing Editor for Microsoft Certified Professional Magazine and a manager at a large IT services firm in Australia. He's the author of Lotus Domino Administration in a Nutshell (O'Reilly and Associates, ISBN 1-56592-717-6). You can reach him at Attn: Greg.
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There are 105  user Comments for “The Good Ole Days”
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Page 4 of 11
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| 5/7/02: Edward says: |
While generally agreeing with what has been said, I feel that there are other factors to be considered. IT was always (I base this statement on over 25 years in the industry) a better paid profession than other similarly important professions and I think it will continue to be so. Part of the "inflated" (IMO) salaries came from lack of experienced IT people. Now with the upsurge of IT projects in the late 90s, the education system also started pushing more students in this direction to fill the concieved gap. Please note, there's a MAJOR difference in trained people and people qualified to do the job. A person who is good at remembering text can pass exams and get qualifications and call themselves "qualified". They are not Qualified in my understanding of the term. Once they find themselves alone with a mission critical server down in the middle of the night, they will soon know if they are "Qualified" to handle the situation or not ! The fact is, it takes time to get experience, to be able to handle IT problems as well as handle customers in an IT environment. We have a lot of these "paper qualified" people coming out of courses at the moment but they are of limited value to companies, who will need to invest time and money in them before they become an asset. I believe it will be these people more than others, who will find it difficult to find positions. There's also the underswell of change away from Microsoft products which may be affected by the current court procedings. Most training has been on MS products in the last couple of years. The skills required may now become more Linux or Web based technology related and this would be the area where salaries are likely to rise again (IMHO). |
| 5/8/02: Mike says: |
I really think that what happened on 9/11 was a major contributor to the market. People are more apt to hang around at their job for security reasons; they don't want to be left out high and dry. Around Cincinnati for example the Information Systems job market used to have a page in the local papers, now it barely has 2 or 3 job aps. I do agree with everyone though about the paper certifications, they don't mean anything, experience is what you need in any computer-related field. Website design, network admin, application Eng. or DBA. Someone starting out in the field like myself's best interest is to stay at the job there in, and ride the storm out. If they get laid off. Try contract work. To get that jewel we call experience. |
| 5/8/02: Anonymous says: |
A page? Dallas Morning News used to have 15 pages IT job ads at the peak time. |
| 5/8/02: Anonymous says: |
LOL, so true, so true! "great column". |
| 5/9/02: UhNoneeMous says: |
Wow, it was 0244 and I just finished gleeming this page. All I can say after having read all the statements/remarx and thing's (cert out) is that it looks like I chose the right field to get join. I am NOT the Kobe Bryant of the IT field Nor am any other unmetioned superStar athlete Bill Gates gonna never be somebody. I am someone who has looked at the numbers of IT - type employment listing in the Seattle Times go from sometimes 4 full pages to maybe one caption.. I worked at a .com in the 90's, slept under my desk along with the worker ants and my job was no where near IT. 'Lest you count Marketing as IT. I tinkered around with troubleshooting (that's installing win95 on PC's when it was the newest OS on the block and there were some who used 3.5's rather than cd's - those were the daez) PC's for fun spending money on the weekends. While my friends were going to universities etc, I joined the military and served my country well(or as well as I expected of myself) Then 1998-99 hit and the talk was IT/IT/.com gonna get rich if you just have a plan that sounds plausible. "Why yes we can sell dog food and high dollar items via the net AND w/o taxing!! I jumped on the bandwagon. From 1998 to 2001 there was the constant (ok, slight) need to jump on the MCSE bandwagon. I was impressed by the commerecials and the seemingly endless supply of jobs. I worked 86 hours a week and watched the gois and dolls in the IT department get larger checks then what I was making. All the while some if not all were showing to work in PJ's and baseball caps...(some even had cute little chimp backpacks. You know the one's that look as if there is a monkey glued to your backs)-- Anyway, I am getting more then sidetracked at 2:58 am (ok so I was sleepy ok) In 2001, I gave into the MCSE bug and I jumped in with BOTH feet.. I got my MCSE after scoring miserably enough on 70-216 to retake if I so desired (!) so, Feb of this year, I graduated from the business college I was attending with a shiney diploma in Network Systems Administration and a MCSE card w/o the technet subscription. I did get the lapel pin and suitable for framing certifcates with BG's sig! Which incidently, was grrreat for me.. Some may think it cheesy.. It was neat from my perspective... Now comes the reality check. I did not go in this field thinking that I would be the new milennium (!) equiv of Thurston Howell the III nor did I think I would/should/could get the 55K plus a year job just because I had the lapel pin, wallet card or the Msft-symbol tattooed on my chest (not really).. I am more then willing to start from the bottom and I look forward to spending weekends and my off days volunteering to help out at my local public library or where-ever else I can get my hands on toys I cannot afford so as to get the experience... This field thus far seems to be fair as is most of life. Things never necessarily go according to plan. You can jump haphazardly in2 this field as some of my fellow classmates did (heck, there were some who I swear and I don't had NEVER touched a keyboard let alone knew what right-clicking would do!) thinking that there is a fat brass ring at the end just awaiting for you once you get that card/pin/want ad in your hand(s) or you can come to grips with "hey, I gotta start somewhere." and just go from there.... My only questionable question after all this is thought and typed is when do I find the time to take a breather. I passed the 7 tests (yippee still I feel)and I am STILL studying just as hard-er if not worse.. But you know what folks I still love it.... Start me at the bottom of the ladder and I will remain happy because I had a realistic view (or one that suited me just foin!) on what to expect... As far as the ITT commercials and/or adverts in the local papers on the weekends are concerned, I no more see them then I do the sports section (cannot stand! = yucky!)(((except the Mariner's you gotta love those guy's!!))) Fickle these times may be, at least I have something I place a higher value on then the money I was s'posed to be making according to the ads.. At least I am no longer sleeping in an office under a desk! --- Footnote - In no way shape or form was I attempting to read as if I were bashing anyone for expecting more then what they receive(d) as monetary compensation for a job well done. If my skewered message came off reading like that, well, I truly apologize for that... Have a great life guy's and gal's!! TB1996 |
| 5/9/02: Anonymous says: |
Currently I am what u would call a neophyte to the IT Market. Actually I caught the "bug" way back in 1994 {read new release Win95 ;-). Anyway, for me at the time it was just a hobby...I just seemed to know more than friends & family so they always asked me for help with their *&^@#! computers. So far I have Win95, Win98, WinMe, and Win2000. I have set up a home network with a win98 system and a dual boot Win98/2000 system. WinMe is on a system of its own. I use that machine just so I can help solve ME issues (there are a plenty). I am preparing to build my own system (AMD is the winner so far)so that I can install WinXP--I've heard XP is a horror like ME. I recently passed A+ cert (I thought the test was too short--adaptive exam) Here is the problem...Since I live in NY..On LI...Tech jobs...even entry level..are almost non-existent...Entry level...read entry level pay with MCSE many years experience..only jobs being advertised for. To make things worse I am a career changer---NY State Certified Teacher...I worked for 3 years..up until 9/11..reevaluated my life and realized that the little perks like lots of vacation just didn't add up to the downside (plenty believe it or not)- So here I sit with a B.S. degree and A+ cert. and wondering where to go from here. Does anyone have any suggestions... |
| 5/9/02: Machismo64 says: |
Anonymous, I was in a similar situation to yours a couple of years ago. I have a Masters degree and taught high school algebra and history for seven years. I got tired of seeing ads for high school graduates with Oracle DBAs making twice my salary to start. I had no way to get an Oracle DBA, so I achieved A+ and MCSE through self study. After getting both certs, it took me a year to land an offer to run the network of a small bank. I am now in another position because of a family move. I have two years of experience, MCSE NT4, MCSA 2K, A+, and Masters degree and am making 40K at a small software company. That is reality. I have begun on and off study for CCNA and am considering acquiring other skills such as Oracle and scripting. I have begun to do network design and some project management at my company because my boss noticed that I could do these things better than anyone else here. I am looking for ways to make my labor even more valuable. All in all, this work is much easier than teaching ever was (and I was a very good teacher), but I get far fewer days off and the pay is only a little better. If you get into this field, be prepared to always look for ways to make yourself more valuable. The way it is now, you will only be offered big bucks if you are worth it. |
| 5/9/02: OU812 says: |
OK OK so we all know the bottom has dropped out and that you shouldnt have such lofty expectations for salary requirements(without experience). However what is someone to do that is willing to start at the bottom and work like a dog just to get the experience. I too love technology it fascinates me what can be accomplished through innovations I just want to work and I am willing to do whatever is neccesary. I cant even get my foot in the door. I was a network support technician for a year and a half and now im collecting gubment cheese to make ends meet. My expereince is in fiber optics and many IT companies dont see how working with a sonet network qualifies you to work in a TCP/IP network or ethernet or any of the "standards". I hope that as people who are looking to make fast cash leave they will make room for the people who really are interested in makeing this a career not just looking to cash in on the lofty promises the advertisers and schools make. |
| 5/9/02: anonymous in NY says: |
It's not the people looking to make quick cash. It's the corps. that are a little gun shy with their IT budgets. They are looking for very experienced individuals that can jump right in and do the job..no trainning period..of course they only want to pay what they would pay for someone with no experience. Unfortunately there are plenty experienced IT pro's that were excessed/laid off with the economy downturn that are desperate to take any job..which sends a message to Corps that they got us by the short hairs and thus the market gets tighter for us. RE: Machismo64 How were u able to land the first "real" job? It has to be easier than teaching...:-) at least computers can be fixed..too many 'broken children' that really could'nt be fixed... couldn't sleep at night because I couldnt make a difference (worked in NY Urban like school in a suburban setting-becoming more common even in the "Better" communities) |
| 5/9/02: Anonymous says: |
I think one of the things missing in the puzzle here is noting that all those pieces of paper are not meaningless. They are required to get a chance at a job. The problem right now is that the new generation of IT workers is currently being passed over for those of you who already have a security clearance, already have 10 years in the industry, have veteran's preference points or were previously laid off by the company that is now trying to hire back old workers they were sorry to lay off, or the internal worker that wants to move up from within. Yes, part of it is that we have been promised things we aren't going to get. But another part is that to even be considered, we are spending money on certifications and college courses that we don't really have to spend. I've been working to get through school. I've done my best to stay in industry jobs, but what has been available is part time drivel with no pay and no benefits. I have no health insurance, but I am paying thousands of dollars for courses and certifications out of pocket, not out of the company staff improvement fund. As the years go by, I find that no matter how much experience I get, I am still considered entry level. When I had a couple years of part time support, I was passed up for full time jobs because I didn't have papers. Now with five years of part-time support and consulting, the market has gone down, and I am still considered worthless before I even hit the door. When I didn't have my MCSE, I wasn't even considered for jobs. No interviews. Now that I have it, it isn't worth anything other than being allowed into the selection process before being turned down because I don't already have top secret security clearance or skills that one simply can't afford to get on a home network. I can't afford tech net subscriptions or copies of the latest version of photoshop. So the market has basically shut out any new talent simply due to the immense startup costs now involved in persuing the entry level jobs of the career. They are being handed to people already in the industry, not the entry level people. I've worked part time at my school for some of the top scientists in the country. But references don't really count, people want to see lots of letters after names before they consider you, and then they want to see lots of acceptable experience. I'm in IT to stay, because it is the thing I love. But right now IT is aging itself. None of the new faces are going to get any experience on our resume if we are required to somehow already have experience. ; ) I am soon to be thirty, and still the only jobs available are part-time, no benefits, below the poverty level. In a bad job market, the new people are swept aside for the larger older generation, no matter who is skilled, and we tend to feel pushed aside or left for dead. ; ) What I would say to the younger people like me is that just like senior citizens have been replacing high school students in the grocery stores, leaving us without experience, we are not likely to break out of the 15k to 30k region until the baby-boomers feel the need to stop putting off their retirement. Be happy if you have a job at all, keep up to date, and keep looking. |
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