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Greg Neilson
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The Good Ole Days |
| In the late '90s, IT professionals enjoyed high demand and even higher salaries. For those of you longing for a return to this golden age, Greg Neilson predicts severe disappointment. |
| by Greg Neilson |
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4/30/2002 -- The late '90s were heady times in IT. I lived in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1997 until early 2000, so I was lucky enough to be near the epicenter. Not only was there all of the considerable dotcom activity, but at the same time most other companies were making extensive investments in upgrading their IT infrastructure in preparation for Y2K.
Since the dotcom crash in April 2000, many of us in IT have been wondering when the downturn will end and the "good ole days" will be back again. It's becoming more and more obvious to me that this won't happen -- sure, things will get better than they are today, but we won't ever get back to that unsustainable level of activity we had then.
I'm not trying to pretend that I'm the first to say this – I recall seeing some industry analysts make this point in the middle of last year. However, the recent wave of profit warnings issued by many of the major IT players underlines this premise. I certainly think we'll see some improvement from our current position, but as the IT industry matures we will probably move to a sustainable level of IT activity, a new kind of what we might think of as "normal."This will be the case for investment in IT (hardware, software and professional services), but more to the point for you, our readers, in the employment of IT professionals.
Even though I think things will get better on the IT job scene, the reduced demand for staff relative to the pre-April 2000 levels means that salaries and conditions will continue to be generally less than we had become used to. This isn't to say we'll end up being paid minimum wage, but the drop in demand means that those looking to change jobs may have to accept less than they currently receive now. This also means that those who don't move will find that their current salary may not rise significantly until inflation increases the market pay rates above their current salary level. Given that inflation is relatively low in most major economies nowadays, this could take some time. Either way, this means that real salaries in IT will fall from the previous levels.
Following the same logic through, I also believe that this reduced demand will mean that some of those who were working in IT before may need to give serious consideration about whether they should start to look at other career options outside of IT. Generally speaking, these will have been the poorer performers who only had jobs because their employer had little other choice -- use these people or go without (or pay more to get the people who really could do the job). Now that the employment demand has dropped, these poor performers are being passed over for those who have a demonstrated history of achievement and have a compelling career story to tell. Also, those who haven't kept their skills current will probably also find things very difficult.
I'm not trying to tell everyone that the sky is falling. In the long term, IT will continue to be a good career option, but things probably won't again be as great as they were in the late '90s. We will still be paid well compared to other professions, but not to the levels we have been accustomed. This means we are going to need to adjust our thinking as to what we can reasonable expect in salary and conditions from employers in the future. Perhaps some of us will have some great stories to tell our grandkids – "Sure, those were crazy times in the late 90s, and I was there in the middle of it. Did I ever tell you about . . .?".
What's your view of the road ahead in IT? Please let me know by posting your comments below. 
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Greg Neilson, MCSE+Internet, MCNE, PCLP, is a Contributing Editor for Microsoft Certified Professional Magazine and a manager at a large IT services firm in Australia. He's the author of Lotus Domino Administration in a Nutshell (O'Reilly and Associates, ISBN 1-56592-717-6). You can reach him at Attn: Greg.
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There are 104  user Comments for “The Good Ole Days”
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Page 3 of 11
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| 5/3/02: Vern says: |
Wow, I was impressed with the guy who had 3 whole months of experience... and he's struggling. I got my first job as a programmer in August, 1980 and worked on HUGE, water cooled IBM mainframes. I've seen good and bad times and the one thing remains constant is that things are going to change. I have a bachelors degree and four certifications and at any given time, the combination of my experience, skills and certifications help me stay in the game. If stability and security are what you're after, then become a bus driver. If you love the challenges that new technologies or problems bring, then IT is the place to be. |
| 5/3/02: Lisa says: |
I think that it is definatly going to be harder for people just trying to get into this field. They have been promised the world and mislead. I always used to see ads about 60,000 IT jobs unfilled. MCSE earns 75K. Well what this didnt say is that the MCSE who earns 75K has been in this industry for 5 or 10 years and started out on a help desk or as a PC Tech. When I got my certification I was the ONLY one in my class who worked in the industry. I still keep in touch with some of my classmates and I am still the only one who works in IT. Why? because none of them wanted to start out at the bottom. They all wanted to start out as a Network Admin because they had thier MCSE. Well thats not how it works folks. Ive been in this business 5 years and when I was laid off last year I was out of work 7 months. Why? Not because I had a bad work history or bad references but because the market is bad and I was either way over qualified or way under qualified. Nobody was looking for your typical Network Admin. They wanted speciality people at the time. High level engineeers or low level help desk. If you want to be in this industry you have to do your time like the rest of us. Dont expect to make 50k year one. And to Cert Out who says he has been there 3 months and if he doesnt have a new job in 3 months he switching... thats probably a good idea because your expectations are way off and you will never be happy. Gone is the day where unskilled workers who just have certs are going to get jobs and frankly Im glad. |
| 5/3/02: Mike says: |
I've worked in the computer field for over 30 years now. I'm still here (first & foremost) because I love the technology and derive significant job satisfaction working in this field. Monetary compensation is secondary. You're more likely to become a winer/complainer, finding fault with everything and everyone around you if you are not truely happy with your career. So, if you're here for the money first, thinking you can put up with anything if the price is right...think again. Every career field has its highs and lows, sucesses and set-backs. If you don't truely enjoy it, you won't be a happy camper. But, if you're here because you enjoy this, then be prepared for the journey, learn the technology, do certs, work hard. Competence and accomplishment comes with experience. These are earned along the way. And by all means enjoy the journey. Bottomline: You are going to spend a huge number of hours the next 20/30 years doing something to earn a living. I highly recommend you spend the time doing something you really enjoy. |
| 5/4/02: Cert Out says: |
To Bill and Lisa and to all the people who thinks I'm the rookie in this field with my MCSE and A+ certs and 3 months experience don't deserve a high paying job well think again...I'm the KOBE BRYANT of networking, I don't need 5 years experience in this field, the bottom line is I'M good and that's the bottom line, the only reason why I haven't gotten any job opportunities is because employers are looking for the all in 1 person who has a degree, all the certs and 5 + experience....and Lisa yes I am starting at the bottom, I'm in tech support for a networking hardware company, it's not that 55k a year in fact it's less than 26K a year and Bill it took you 15 years to get an entry level job in IT, how pathetic is that...I got an IT job right after I graduated school, the only reason why I'm bitching is I'm not getting paid what I'm worth. And I've changed my mind, I ain't gonna pull the plug in 3 months, postings here inspired me that I can do it so thanks guys for all your negative comments. I will get my dream IT job one day! |
| 5/6/02: Ellen says: |
Well, Cert Out, all I can say is that you are the type that send resumes that I put into the trash, as they usually say something totally ridiculous like "Expert blah" when they show not work history. The name of the game in this industry is paying the dues. You have to expect to be working all the hours, taking the crap jobs, and being paid next to nothing to break into the great jobs. It doesn't happen overnite. The reason employers are looking for the "all in 1 person who has a degree, all the certs and 5+ experience" is #1 they can get that (thanks to people like you who have inflated the expectations for us long time IT career people) AND because frankly, no certification is going to provide the real world problem solving abilities that being in the trenches provides. For your sake, I hope you stick it out. However, knock the chip off your shoulder. You'll never go anywhere if people perceive you as being arrogant. |
| 5/6/02: David says: |
I routinely see people with their brand new certification(s) who can hack and code circles around me, who are also totally useless in the real world. The skills that are most valuable generally are not the hard-core technical skills in a specific technology. IT’s function is to enable the business types to do their jobs and make money, not play with the latest toys. Business is all about soft skills. Can you analyze a problem and present a coherent business case with valid ROI analysis? Can you patiently and politely listed to a frustrated end user, solve their problem and explain it to them in terms they can understand without making them feel stupid? If you can do these things you will be a valuable member of the organization and be less likely to be laid off. What some of you are calling kissing butt is really just networking and that is how business works. I can always find a book, friend, or vendor, to solve technical problems for me. What is much more difficult to find is someone who works well in a team and never gets tired of learning. For reference I live in a rural area, in a small city, with virtually unlimited outdoor recreation opportunities less than two hours from my house and make about 70K. My commute is ten minutes. I have calculated what it would take for me to move to a metropolitan area and maintain my standard of living and it is well into six figures so it is just not worth it. |
| 5/7/02: ITAA Org, lets get real says: |
Has anyone read about the new article stating that there will be about 1.1 million new IT jobs available this year. I think, in my opinion, this organization is inflating numbers to serve their cause. I think part of the reason why so many people who are trying to get in is because of salary surveys and bogus organizations like ITAA here that advocates HB1 and other training groups out there. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are about 2.1 million total IT force in the US instead of 10.4 million claimed by ITAA or www.itaa.org for more info. Someone needs to verify this claim since I don't believe any of it. Someone call BBB!!! |
| 5/7/02: Just a "Wrench Guy" says: |
Well all the attitudes are just fine. On one side are people with little or no education or experience and the other are "know it alls" who supposedly the "sages" of IT. The know it alls are the ones who sucked the well dry with their exorbitant salaries, and are thrilled no one else will get some. And the newbies need to get a life, real pay equals real work. Go do some and then talk to me. Just reading is bullshit, try performing first! THEN try and find someone who cares anymore! And this other guy, Give me a break, the TOYS are all the bigwigs want. They just want to stand around at conferences and spout about how big and fancy their IT is, without any eye towards upkeep. Here is the real world => Toy loving big wig refuses to fund an IT dept. after dumping a buttload on an ill-fated salesman-baited plan = disaster. Then bigwigs turn around 2x now, (ALMOST 3) and suck up to a ANOTHER salesman who promises lots of cool sounding nothing toys of a different color and the bigwigs jump for joy and fund the same amount they should have funded in manpower and training. What is "today's" scam? 24x7. $84,000 a year later and all you have is what has been happening for many years (except for once or twice a month AT NIGHT due to power storms) the network stayed up 24x7. How are theses remote people going to fix POWER problems? Are they going to drive from 2.5 hours away to push a button? How about just buying a power conditioner for the whole building? How about funding some simple SNMP setups so it can be tracked and more than 1 1/2 persons to show up (or remotely) fix the issues? How about just moving the critical systems elsewhere? Oh wait I already did THAT (but no TOYS to be found) - How about the unstable power building is now just a leg rather than the hub, so who gives a crap; THE BUILDINGS EMPTY AT NIGHT ANYWAY AND EMAIL & WEBSITE ARE ELSEWHERE? Nope, hand somebody a HUGE chunk of cash so they are happy rather than your own employees. DUH! Nothing else changes! NO extra support, NO extra time to finish anything, NO changes in outlay, NO upgrades or new equipment - no NOTHING! How about a freaking' test system? "No, I don't think we really need that. We are TOO small". Too small for a real environment, but too big to EVER be down for a second (when no one is around). Now after being screwed out of years of effort, I hear - gotta take lower pay so some OTHER ass can F@#$% me over. By who? The buttheads who ran the salaries up so high the bigwigs saw the emperor had no clothes, now happy that THIER kids will go to college and nobody else’s. And the bigwigs who pissed away yet another $100,000 for an intangible. If you don’t have specific RIGHT NOW knowledge, you lose. But then seconds later it’s not good enough. Who controls this? Bigwig toy hunter, HR dummy and sales dork who sells things that won’t really work, and forgets to mention the work needed to keep it going. THEN JUST like the bigwigs, newbies (now working snake oil sales - as they couldn't get a REAL job) who know jack yet dictate what will be done based on their know nothing, no-real work ethic toy hunting (in their case cert = free money, who needs REAL knowledge - just become a salesman!). I get enough of this now, that that 1/2 person (who knows so little, I spend 1/2 my time telling her what to do), argues with me and states facts to everyone AND my boss as an equal while getting it wrong 75% of the time. What do I get? 8 years of wasted effort and time. And I hear dumb ass things like: “They see you a s a wrench guy, wrench guys don’t sit at their desks all day, they go out and do wrench things – which you can’t do at your desk.” So now I have to go sit at different desks or in a server closet, and do THE EXACT SAME WORK because some PHD psychology major can only recognize that I do work as work if I’m not seen. Plumbing = IT! These knuckleheads are the REAL world! They took over ‘cause the know-it-alls oversold and over collected and their time has come. Who pays? Us in the middle and kowtowing to Bill Gates and other bullshitters over paper that is only good for a specific skill just feeds into it. Bad Field! BAD! Bad Field! BAD! |
| 5/7/02: Ellen says: |
Gee WrenchGuy, perhaps you should take a Prozac and/or early retirement! We all have frustrations on the job, and yes, the environment has changed dramatically for the worse, and yes, there are a bunch of high-paid do-nothings that cause the rest of us to suffer on a daily basis. And, a bunch of idiot execs that see only toys as the solution. I don't see that changing. I'm not one of the high-paid do-nothings, in fact, after I lost my job last November thanks to "maximizing shareholder value", I was off for 5 months and barely found something suitable before bankruptcy. I never gave up hope though, and I never once thought of my field of choice as "BAD". I still see it with many options but you have to decide which is more important: making bigger $ or having a life. I have a life. I make 10K less than the previous job, but I'm OK with that. I have a life. The best advice I give someone looking to enter the IT arena (and funny, I just had this conversation with a friend of mine Sunday evening), is that you need to be realisitic about the availability of jobs and also not expect that having a skillset is going to guarantee stability. That means no big houses with huge mortgages and driving Beemers. You have to LOVE the work and the challenge, just like any other job. |
| 5/7/02: MN says: |
IT industry is for the people who love it. This comes with the challenge of updating skills and hardworking, and LOVING the job. The people who enter IT just for a high income will not find it interesting and it is one of the reasons of current IT situtation. Lots of people with no idea of what a computer is, and just expecting money. So what we are observing is; these people are leaving the IT industry since they can't afford for training and keeping their knowledge up-to-date, thereby leaving IT for its veterans WORSE DAYS are on their way for GOLD-HUNTERS, and, GOOD DAYS for IT GUYS... |
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