Since the dotcom crash in April 2000, many of us in IT have been wondering when the downturn will end and the "good ole days" will be back again. It's becoming more and more obvious to me that this won't happen -- sure, things will get better than they are today, but we won't ever get back to that unsustainable level of activity we had then.

I'm not trying to pretend that I'm the first to say this – I recall seeing some industry analysts make this point in the middle of last year. However, the recent wave of profit warnings issued by many of the major IT players underlines this premise. I certainly think we'll see some improvement from our current position, but as the IT industry matures we will probably move to a sustainable level of IT activity, a new kind of what we might think of as "normal."This will be the case for investment in IT (hardware, software and professional services), but more to the point for you, our readers, in the employment of IT professionals.

Even though I think things will get better on the IT job scene, the reduced demand for staff relative to the pre-April 2000 levels means that salaries and conditions will continue to be generally less than we had become used to. This isn't to say we'll end up being paid minimum wage, but the drop in demand means that those looking to change jobs may have to accept less than they currently receive now. This also means that those who don't move will find that their current salary may not rise significantly until inflation increases the market pay rates above their current salary level. Given that inflation is relatively low in most major economies nowadays, this could take some time. Either way, this means that real salaries in IT will fall from the previous levels.

Following the same logic through, I also believe that this reduced demand will mean that some of those who were working in IT before may need to give serious consideration about whether they should start to look at other career options outside of IT. Generally speaking, these will have been the poorer performers who only had jobs because their employer had little other choice -- use these people or go without (or pay more to get the people who really could do the job). Now that the employment demand has dropped, these poor performers are being passed over for those who have a demonstrated history of achievement and have a compelling career story to tell. Also, those who haven't kept their skills current will probably also find things very difficult.

I'm not trying to tell everyone that the sky is falling. In the long term, IT will continue to be a good career option, but things probably won't again be as great as they were in the late '90s. We will still be paid well compared to other professions, but not to the levels we have been accustomed. This means we are going to need to adjust our thinking as to what we can reasonable expect in salary and conditions from employers in the future. Perhaps some of us will have some great stories to tell our grandkids – "Sure, those were crazy times in the late 90s, and I was there in the middle of it. Did I ever tell you about . . .?".

What's your view of the road ahead in IT? Please let me know by posting your comments below.