Our industry moves on, and it’s up to each of us to understand where it is headed and what we intend to do about it. At this time of the year, you’ll likely see lots of predictions from commentators on hot areas for the coming year. (And of course at CertCities.com, we’ve just completed our own survey of the 10 Hottest Certifications for 2005). Taken alone these are mostly educated guesses on the future, but when you see common threads emerge between these disparate sources then maybe they are onto something that we need to consider. Often, the issue is not the likely success of that technology in the future, it’s the timing—it may take far longer than the coming year for the technology to emerge into the mainstream.

There are a couple of main reasons for considering a move to something different in the future. One is that you’re getting bored doing the same stuff day in and day out and think it would be more challenging and exciting to learn something else. The other is that you feel the areas that you specialise in now are slowing—or worse—possibly in decline. If you take a longer term view of your career in IT, it is very likely that you’ll be retraining in something over the next five to 10 years. The question is to what and when.

When I think about the career trajectories of some of my current and former colleagues, in retrospect it’s amazing to see the paths taken. For example, one person over the last decade has moved from messaging to directory services and is now in identity management. Or take another person who has gone from server administration to Notes administration to line management and now to project management. And then there are others who’ve moved from mainframe PL/1 programming to C++ and now Java.

I think the key to much of this movement is while the individual technologies and products change quickly, the professional disciplines behind them change much more slowly and are largely transferable. There is a great deal of your existing skills and experience that can be leveraged for new roles in the future. For example, if you’re currently a proficient DBA in Oracle and are interested in moving to, say, MySQL or SQL Server, much of what you already know is still relevant and the main things you need to pick up are specific implementation details of the new product. Similarly, a move to a security specialization isn’t a large leap from network support and implementation or systems administration. Sure, there’s much to learn, but there’s much you already know.

As for my own development plans in the coming year, I’m not sure yet what part, if any, will be done using certification (I’m still pondering whether to get the Citrix CCA in 2005). Over the coming holiday break, two current technologies I want to learn more about are SAN and VoIP. I only have a conceptual view of both of these and am finding that the majority of my clients have or will be implementing these in the future.

I also want to learn more about the current status of grid computing. This is still an evolving area, but there have been significant developments over the past few years, and I want to better understand where it is now, how it's being applied today and where it’s likely headed.

In terms of formal education, I completed my MBA this year, and next year I’ll be taking a course on technology management. While I don’t see myself performing a management role indefinitely, I think whatever role I take on in the future will often be advising those that are, so this is an area that combines my interests in both technology and business.

Have a great holiday break with your friends and family, and I’ll see you back again in 2005. What do you plan to do next year? Let me know by posting your thoughts below.