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Greg Neilson
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The Good Ole Days |
| In the late '90s, IT professionals enjoyed high demand and even higher salaries. For those of you longing for a return to this golden age, Greg Neilson predicts severe disappointment. |
| by Greg Neilson |
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4/30/2002 -- The late '90s were heady times in IT. I lived in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1997 until early 2000, so I was lucky enough to be near the epicenter. Not only was there all of the considerable dotcom activity, but at the same time most other companies were making extensive investments in upgrading their IT infrastructure in preparation for Y2K.
Since the dotcom crash in April 2000, many of us in IT have been wondering when the downturn will end and the "good ole days" will be back again. It's becoming more and more obvious to me that this won't happen -- sure, things will get better than they are today, but we won't ever get back to that unsustainable level of activity we had then.
I'm not trying to pretend that I'm the first to say this – I recall seeing some industry analysts make this point in the middle of last year. However, the recent wave of profit warnings issued by many of the major IT players underlines this premise. I certainly think we'll see some improvement from our current position, but as the IT industry matures we will probably move to a sustainable level of IT activity, a new kind of what we might think of as "normal."This will be the case for investment in IT (hardware, software and professional services), but more to the point for you, our readers, in the employment of IT professionals.
Even though I think things will get better on the IT job scene, the reduced demand for staff relative to the pre-April 2000 levels means that salaries and conditions will continue to be generally less than we had become used to. This isn't to say we'll end up being paid minimum wage, but the drop in demand means that those looking to change jobs may have to accept less than they currently receive now. This also means that those who don't move will find that their current salary may not rise significantly until inflation increases the market pay rates above their current salary level. Given that inflation is relatively low in most major economies nowadays, this could take some time. Either way, this means that real salaries in IT will fall from the previous levels.
Following the same logic through, I also believe that this reduced demand will mean that some of those who were working in IT before may need to give serious consideration about whether they should start to look at other career options outside of IT. Generally speaking, these will have been the poorer performers who only had jobs because their employer had little other choice -- use these people or go without (or pay more to get the people who really could do the job). Now that the employment demand has dropped, these poor performers are being passed over for those who have a demonstrated history of achievement and have a compelling career story to tell. Also, those who haven't kept their skills current will probably also find things very difficult.
I'm not trying to tell everyone that the sky is falling. In the long term, IT will continue to be a good career option, but things probably won't again be as great as they were in the late '90s. We will still be paid well compared to other professions, but not to the levels we have been accustomed. This means we are going to need to adjust our thinking as to what we can reasonable expect in salary and conditions from employers in the future. Perhaps some of us will have some great stories to tell our grandkids – "Sure, those were crazy times in the late 90s, and I was there in the middle of it. Did I ever tell you about . . .?".
What's your view of the road ahead in IT? Please let me know by posting your comments below. 
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Greg Neilson, MCSE+Internet, MCNE, PCLP, is a Contributing Editor for Microsoft Certified Professional Magazine and a manager at a large IT services firm in Australia. He's the author of Lotus Domino Administration in a Nutshell (O'Reilly and Associates, ISBN 1-56592-717-6). You can reach him at Attn: Greg.
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There are 104  user Comments for “The Good Ole Days”
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Page 2 of 11
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| 5/2/02: RL says: |
Contrary to what Paolo suggests, I believe that OVERALL, the people with the weakest credentials ARE getting released at a much higher pace than those with long-term, demonstratable skills. This applies to managers who used to be coders and "web designers" who don't have depth in application development. As a 10-year veteran and MCSD, I am impacted less than my co-workers and acquaintances who have only a few years experience. I'm more optimistic about the future because like an earlier poster, I believe many will leave the field, disappointed by deflated salaries and the IT shortage will reappear, albeit at a more sane level. Flexibility will be the key to the future. Smokestack industries and client-server applications will not be the cash cow they were in the past. |
| 5/2/02: Cert Out says: |
IT field is a joke, this same website about a year ago said that there was 60,000 IT jobs unfilled last year because of lacking IT workers, that's why I went to school. That was a complete lie, I like computers and always has been and ya I was expecting to get a big salary but when realization came, I had to settle for less. Even the entry leve positions I can't even get an interview even after having 3 months of IT experience and having all my Microsoft certs. That's so pathetic, I work so hard to earn my certs and to stay in school and work at the same time. My tech support job now sucks, I'm getting way underpaid and I'm getting stressed out. Some of my co-workers went to the same tech school I went to without any certs and some of them are complete idiots. I work harder than them and have same jobs. That's totally bogus. If I don't get another IT position within the next 3 months, I'm switching occupations. |
| 5/2/02: woody says: |
You can almost draw a line when things started to go sour. While I believe employers are taking full advantage of IT folks, I don't believe it's limited to IT. No big engineering projects will start until there's some stability. True, some fields are seemingly untouched, and you can bet those guys are nervous but if this keeps up they will be. IT guys are cheap right now. While I hate to think 7 years of PC's NT4 wkstn/svr A+ certs are worthless, interviewers are proving me wrong. Just remember when someone asks you what your life's greatest achievment is don't pull out that picture of your son. I was laid off during the last recession too. |
| 5/2/02: Anonymous says: |
Let's agree that the I T field is fickle, and that most companies abandoned the right way for the quick way for Y2K. I think that most companies have a problem. The networks I see have major flaws. Like the job of painting yourself into a corner, that's what I see. So the Emperor is marching around naked and no one has the gall to tell him. When this baby hits, and the heads stop rollong, I T will be back. Don't let the Turkeys get you down. < < Z Z > > AAS IT, MCSE,A+,CNE,CCNA,DCSE |
| 5/3/02: Anonymous says: |
If anyone is wondering what happened to their programming job, it is now being done in India -- at $15 an hour. All it takes is a 56k link: the specs go over, and 3-6 months later the finished product comes back. |
| 5/3/02: Bill says: |
After reading a couple of posts here, I see that we have some counterparts with less than realistic expectations. Cert Out, you think you really deserve a top level position with the grand sum of 3 whole months of IT experience?? Well ain't you just the cat's pajamas!! If you don't hit the big time in another 3 whole months you're gonna pull the plug?? It's obvious from some of these posts that we do, in fact, live in a society with expectations of instant gratification. I spent about 15 years just trying to get an entry level job in this field. I've now been with the same firm for 8 years, and am more than thankfull to have a job. I came to this company in a non-technical, entry-level job. I've worked very hard to get where I am, and I continue to maintain my skills so that I remain a valuable part of our team. This field is no different than any other. There are dues to be paid, tests to be passed and a damn fine living to be made. If you don't have the time or don't have the patience to pay the dues, perhaps this business is better off without you. Quit whining, get your experience, pass your tests, and if you don't like what's going on in our industry, GET OUT!! |
| 5/3/02: Bill says: |
After reading a couple of posts here, I see that we have some counterparts with less than realistic expectations. Cert Out, you think you really deserve a top level position with the grand sum of 3 whole months of IT experience?? Well ain't you just the cat's pajamas!! If you don't hit the big time in another 3 whole months you're gonna pull the plug?? It's obvious from some of these posts that we do, in fact, live in a society with expectations of instant gratification. I spent about 15 years just trying to get an entry level job in this field. I've now been with the same firm for 8 years, and am more than thankfull to have a job. I came to this company in a non-technical, entry-level job. I've worked very hard to get where I am, and I continue to maintain my skills so that I remain a valuable part of our team. This field is no different than any other. There are dues to be paid, tests to be passed and a damn fine living to be made. If you don't have the time or don't have the patience to pay the dues, perhaps this business is better off without you. Quit whining, get your experience, pass your tests, and if you don't like what's going on in our industry, GET OUT!! |
| 5/3/02: Sweetface says: |
I have been in IT for almost 7 years as a consultant doing builds, support, administration, infrastructure, and design. I never needed Certs before, but I saw the job market crunching up and managed to get my 2000MCSE in three months. I guessed correctly, as my current job required the Certs and vast experience. It did take many months to get this position, so do not give up! |
| 5/3/02: Randy says: |
After reading these comments, I must add mine also. I am a mainframe programmer with 20+ years experience plus a business degree. Wanting to stay up with the industry, I studied and received my MCSD because I have 20 years left before retirement. I found that without the certifications, no one wanted to talk with me. Now I find that without the experience, they won't hire me, even for the entry level jobs. Between the indian contractors (here in the US and in India), the out-sourcers, and the schools advertising huge incomes to students, there are plainly too many people chasing too few jobs. Young-timers take note. You too will be like me. I am beginning to think that the business is a trap for the young. Your skills will be made obsolete long before you retire, no matter how much you study. Nursing anyone? |
| 5/3/02: brhodes says: |
First - you young studs are too young to remember the other shifts in IT - like the one from mainframes to PC's. Two lessons: 1. This isn't the first time around on the "IT sucks" merry-go-round or the first time some IT bubble has burst. 2. If you can't keep your skills up to date, you'll be one of the first to leave. The next point is that IT supports business - if you can't see how your project accomplishes a business objective, you're too short-sighted which means you're expendable to the organization. The last point is that irrespective of whether you learned your craft in college or a paper-mill, if you can't think and solve problems, you're next to useless. As a developer, I've seen more than my fair share of hacker/slashers who couldn't think their way out of a paper bag. The guys who immediately want to open the IDE and code can stay home with their mama's. The guys who are worth the big bucks are the ones who can relate to the business problem being presented and think their way through to a solution. Not the guys who can churn out lines of code. Lest you think otherwise, I don't have a BSc in CompSci and I've plodded my way through certs - I got my first MCP in '99 and a couple more since then - no I'm not a "premium cert holder". Yet I've been happily employed in IT since the mid-80's and currently make in the six figures - and no, I'm not a "manager" - I'm in the trenches slogging it out with the rest of you. One last comment on "craft" - if you're not keeping up to date with advancements in IT and software engineering, then learn to say "Would you like to super size that order sir!" |
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