1/12/2010 -- What's the prospectus for Big Pipe 40 Gigabit Ethernet (GigE) and 100 GigE adoption? Encouraging, according to market watcher Infonetics Research, which says that an overwhelming majority of large carriers plan to deploy 40 GigE and 100 GigE technologies over the next two years.

At the same time, Infonetics concedes, 10 GigE price-points are so compelling (i.e., low) that carriers will continue to invest apace in that technology, too.

Infonetics says its survey sample consists of carriers that account for more than a quarter of global telecom expenditures and generate a full quarter of global telecom revenues. In other words, analysts Michael Howard and Andrew Schmitt argue, it comprises a credible indication of likely interest in and deployment of 40 GigE and 100 GigE technology.

"The most notable feedback was the widespread interest in deploying 40G and 100G once cost-per-bit improvements of only 20 percent are reached, because the network simplification these technologies offer is [perceived as] worth the price," Schmitt said in a statement. "The widely accepted 'four times the capacity at two-and-a-half-times the cost of the previous generation' maxim isn't reflected in carrier responses here. Moving from 10G to 40G/100G is a different story, though; 10G prices are so low now that it will remain a tough opponent for some time."

That said, according to Howard, carriers are definitely interested in -- and doubtless plan to deploy -- 40 GigE and 100 GigE technologies.

"Router manufacturers will be happy to know that 83 percent of the service providers we surveyed plan to use 40G for router-to-WDM connections by 2012, and 84 percent will do the same for 100G at some point," Howard said in a prepared release.

For that matter, researchers indicate, all survey respondents say they've either deployed or evaluated 40 GigE and 100 GigE transport gear. --Stephen Swoyer