5/6/2009 -- If recent market research is any indication, it's an increasingly multi-gigabit world.

Most service providers are mulling 40 Gigabit Ethernet (GigE) deployments, analysts say. Some are even looking ahead to 100 GigE.

"From our conversations with service providers around the globe, a majority are planning to invest in 40G until the 100G market arrives. Some are hoping to leapfrog straight to 100G, but we don't see that being a viable option because unrelenting traffic increases are already surpassing current capacities," said Michael Howard, principal analyst for optical, routing, switching and Ethernet with market watcher Infonetics Research. "More importantly, 100G pricing won't be what most are willing to pay until about 2012 or 2013. 100G Ethernet will be a long-lasting ‘next big thing' when it arrives; in the meantime (and beyond), the 10G and 40G markets will continue to thrive."

Big gigabit deployments surged last year, with shipments of 10 GigE and 40 GigE gear spiking by 86 percent (approaching 2 million ports); that translated into a revenue surge of 45 percent, according to Infonetics.

Though most vig gigabit activity took the form of 10 GigE shipments, sales of 40 GigE ports nearly tripled, according to Infonetics. Through 2013, the market watcher projects, sales of 10 GigE, 40 GigE and 100 GigE ports will continue to grow, with service providers projected to spend $105 billion on big gigabit gear between 2008 and 2013.

"Downturn or not, network traffic continues to increase and enterprises are responding by building out their networks. Case in point: the Ethernet switching market, where overall port shipments grew only 2 percent last year, but 10G port shipments grew 78 percent," said Matthias Machowinski, directing analyst for enterprise voice and data with Infonetics, in a statement.

While the big gigabit market isn't immune to economic shock, in a sense it's largely insulated, according to Machowinski.

"The downturn might temper some of this growth, but the fundamental trend remains, and we expect enterprises to continue making investments in their network cores to avoid congestion," he concluded. --Stephen Swoyer