3/5/2007 -- The appliances are coming! The appliances are coming! Maybe -- or not quite: That's the milquetoastean conclusion of new research from market watcher Infonetics, which found that sales of network security appliances and software increased 15 percent between 2005 and 2006, cresting to $4.5 billion. On top of this, Infonetics predicts, network security appliance and software sales should surpass $5 billion some time this year.

On the other hand, the recent feast could be a prelude to a famine of sorts: From 2007 onward, Infonetics said, growth in the network security appliance and software market is expected to slow to single-digits, thanks primarily to competition from security gateways and NAC products.

"The most important appliance category to watch over the next year is secure routers. Sales were up 25 percent in 2006 and this year will pass $1 billion in worldwide sales, representing a significant portion of the overall network security market. Expect the shift to continue, moving from the price-banded segments of the market to secure routers as they continue to gain acceptance from users," said Jeff Wilson, principal analyst at Infonetics Research, in a statement.

Last year, secure routers accounted for 29 percent of the overall integrated security appliance market; such devices should continue to grow their share of the market through at 2010. Worldwide SSL VPN gateway devices posted gangbuster growth in 2006, with revenues surging by 40 percent (which was actually somewhat off from the previous year’s 61 percent pace).

Elsewhere, Infonetics said, IDS/IPS revenues grew by 19 percent in 2006. Not surprisingly, Cisco continues to lead the overall network security market, with 38 percent of overall revenue share in 2006, according to Infonetics. Cisco posted growth in all network security market segments, the researcher said. Juniper and Check Point are both tied for second, with 9 percent of overall revenues.

It sometimes seems as if market forecasting is a shot-in-the-dark exercise, but Infonetics notes that its projections a year ago for network security appliance and software growth ($4.4 billion) were very nearly on the money. -- Stephen Swoyer