1/22/2007 -- If Cisco CEO John Chambers is right -- and he often is -- the networking giant is on the verge of "the most significant transition point" in its long history.

That's what Chambers recently told a group of industry watchers at Cisco's annual analyst summit -- even as he outlined still another new vision: "The network is the platform." If it sounds familiar, that's because it should be, says John Webster, a principal IT advisor with consultancy Illuminata: But for the switching of one predicate nominative for another, Cisco's next-gen vision circa 2007 sounds a lot like Sun Microsystems Inc.'s next-gen vision circa 1998.

According to Webster, one of the analysts who were in attendance, Chambers then countered that very comparison with one of his own: "Sun has never delivered the network as computer. We can."

Confidence is one thing, Webster argues, hubris is quite another. And if it wishes to execute on its network-as-platform vision, Cisco has a lot with which it must first grapple. "[E]ven though we agree that Sun has yet to deliver the network as computer, Cisco -- as partner to Sun and every other computer maker out there -- has embarked on a very challenging course that could put at least some of [its] high-profile partnerships at risk," he indicates.

As Chambers sees it, Cisco expects to transition from a provider of network infrastructure plumbing to a purveyor of both network infrastructure plumbing and the digital communications services that run on top of it. So far, so good, Webster comments. "Plumbing plus services equals platform. That’s good because the network-plus-services-equals-platform message sounds less threatening to partners who are also in the computing platform business. In that context, network as platform even sounds doable," he says.

That said, Cisco's vision isn't entirely benign. For example, Chambers also argued that in a world in which the network has been redefined as platform, the operating system could possibly be redefined, too. "That sentiment was echoed more than once in later presentations given by other Cisco executives," Webster notes. This begs an important question, he suggests: Won't existing operating systems heavyweights -- Microsoft Corp., Apple Corp., IBM Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co., Sun Microsystems Inc., and the endlessly adaptable open source community -- have something to say about this, too?

As it turns out, this last prognostication is mostly self-serving, Webster says. "What would this new network-as-platform operating system support? The new network-as-computer à la Cisco, of course," he points out. "So, in fewer than 20 minutes, Chambers had pulled a sign that reads 'The Network is the Computer' down from Sun's corporate lobby, and tacked it up in Cisco's. Judging from the reaction of other analysts in attendance over the course of the two-day event, we'd have to say that he got away with it."

Elsewhere, Webster says, Cisco defined four segments in which it intends to be a major if not dominant player: the consumer segment (in the digital home); enterprise IT, where Cisco enjoys unmatched dominance; among carriers and service providers; and mobile communications.

"Together, these constitute a pretty big swath of the market. Much will depend on exactly what services Cisco has in mind to build on top of its plumbing layer," Webster concludes. "Those will no doubt unfold in the coming months and quarters. Is there more here than winking and nodding at a new network operating system? If so, today's partners may one day wake up and discover that Cisco wants a piece of their pie." -- Stephen Swoyer