11/14/2006 -- Cisco Systems Inc.'s multibillion-dollar purchase of the former Scientific Atlanta -- which the networking giant announced nearly a year ago this month -- keeps on looking more and more savvy. The latest evidence? Market watcher Infonetics Research says many of the challenges associated with taking IPTV mainstream are already on the wane, with the result that the number of worldwide IPTV subscribers should more than double every year over the next three years, reaching 68.9 million subscribers by 2009.

"IPTV is still in the 'kick the tire' phase, with service providers doing trials rather than mass deployments, but there's no question that IPTV is going mainstream,” said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for Broadband and IPTV for Infonetics, in a statement. "The only question is about the timeline. ... The technical hurdles are well-known, but the regulatory issues are less predictable. Legislators are asking, ‘How do we treat and regulate IPTV?’ While content owners are asking, ‘How do we best take advantage of these new markets?’ It's complex, and depending on how the regulatory and content licensing discussions go, the timeline for IPTV taking off could either slow down or speed up."

Elsewhere, Infonetics reports, service providers are expected to start generating significant IPTV service revenue between 2005 and 2009, with worldwide revenue increasing at a 169 percent CAGR over the next few years. IPTV uptake is real and verifiable in all markets, but most IPTV service revenue is being generated by providers in the EU. On the whole, however, service providers in all geographies are dedicating increasing amounts of their capital expenditure dollars to IPTV infrastructure, including both content and transport equipment, Infonetics says. And -- of special interest to Cisco -- the number of IP set-top boxes sold worldwide is expected to triple this year, led by China-based Yuxing InfoTech and UK-based Amino Communications, both currently the worldwide leaders in IP STB unit shipment market share. -- Stephen Swoyer