8/17/2010 -- It seems as if Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access -- or WiMAX, as it's known to most folks -- has been gestating forever. It seems as if WiMAX development has proceeded in fits and starts, with new standard bearers (and ambitious new efforts) emerging to replace disaffected boosters.

According to the latest research, WiMAX is on the verge of going mainstream: By 2012, projects market-watcher Infonetics Research predicts a full two-thirds of global service providers will use WiMAX to support their mobility initiatives.

Infonetics has its projections straight from the horse's -- or service provider's -- mouth. By the way, it canvassed more than two dozen service providers for its recent "WiMAX Services Strategies: Global Service Provider Survey" publication.

And while most service providers expect to tap WiMAX to support mobility-based services, a staggering nine-tenths of them expect to use WiMAX to support VoIP services, Infonetics reports.

That being said, WiMAX's triumph isn't a slam dunk. By 2012, service providers clearly expect that WiMAX hardware vendors will have ironed out most of WiMAX's existing shortcomings. Should they fail to do so, Infonetics researchers counsel, WiMAX's triumph is anything but a done deal.

"This indicates a richer service environment for WiMAX in the future, but at the same time, our survey showed that key challenges remain; specifically, the limited range of WiMAX-enabled mobile devices, and the difficulty of building low-ARPU pricing models for developing countries," said Richard Webb, directing analyst for WiMAX, microwave, and mobile devices with Infonetics, in a prepared release. "The WiMAX industry is up against the clock to address these challenges if it is to fulfill its undoubted potential as a long-term broadband technology."

In most regions, Webb and Infonetics say there's a strong demand for a "wireless DSL"-like broadband solution; this is true even in developed locales, such as the United States, where some regions are underserved by broadband capacity. WiMAX neatly fits this bill.

Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of providers expect to unveil full mobility services over the next two years. "Full mobility is likely to be smartphone-oriented, combining data mobility and voice, though initially USB dongles will be the device of choice" in some service areas, Infonetics reports. 

If anything, service providers can't get enough WiMAX -- respondents cite the availability (or, more pointedly, the lack of) of WiMAX-enabled mobile devices as a key commercial challenge.

Other potential issues, include the best way to market or position WiMAX service, is the challenge of building retail and distribution channels, creating a mandate to deliver SLAs for enterprise shops and -- of course -- a need to identify a pricing model for "a low-ARPU market," according to Infonetics.
-By Stephen Swoyer