Think of this compilation more like Billboard Magazine's Hot 100 Singles chart, which doesn't look at the overall position, but the number of positions a song rises in a given time period. That's what we're trying to predict here -- the fastest-growing titles in the industry. Sure, none of our picks may ever become industry powerhouses like Microsoft's MCSE (or, for that matter, Britney Spears), but we do feel they'll all see solid growth in 2003, and their anticipated rise may indicate overall trends in IT certification.

Like last year, the backbone of this article is our annual reader survey. For each title considered, we compared the number of respondents who said they hold a particular title with the number who said they would be getting that designation within the next 12 months, measured both by percentage and overall point spread. We then converted these factors into a 20-to-1 scale (20 being best), giving the reader interest score below. (Only those titles showing positive growth were scaled.)

Next comes the buzz score: What's the industry's take on this title? What do we hear about it? What's the certification's reputation? What accolades have the titles received? What are we hearing from readers? How do our contributing editors rank these certs? We collected this and boiled it down into a buzz score worth up to 10 points, which was then added to a reader interest score to determine the final rankings.

Since this is the second time we've done this article, it's the first time we've been able to compare the results to the previous year. You may notice that some of the picks for 2002 now hold lower placements or have dropped off the chart completely. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, and shouldn't be taken as a slam against any particular certification. Remember, this is based how many of you say that you're going to get a particular certification within the next 12 months. The more of you that follow through, the more people hold that certification. The more growth the title is already experiencing, the harder it is for the certification to land the same placement on this year's chart.

So here's our best shot at predicting the hottest certs for 2003, based on actual research as well as some semi-intelligent guesswork.

But what we really want to know is your take: What's your reaction to this list? What surprises you? What titles would be on your top 10? Be sure to post your comments at the end of the article -- after all, you're the ones who will really determine what the hot certs for 2003 will be.

(By the way, we realize that because of the tie in the 10th place, there are actually 11 titles here. If the tie were in any other position on the chart, we would be able to count two places for the tie and keep the total number of certifications to 10. However, because it's in the 10th position, there's no way to remove a title fairly. And we're not going to mess with the math or change the name of this annual article just to deal with one year's anomaly. We figure you're strong enough to cope.)

#10 (Tie): Citrix Certified Enterprise Administrator (CCEA), Microsoft Certified Database Administrator (MCDBA)
Vendor: Citrix, Microsoft
Category: Networking, Database
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 9, 12
Buzz Score (out of 10): 6, 3
Total: 15, 15

Citrix's lower-level Citrix Certified Administrator (CCA) made the list last year, so it stands to reason that those of you who achieved this title during the last 12 months are ready take the next step.

CertCities.com Contributing Editor Greg Neilson is especially bullish about this title. "Citrix usage is exploding. I would compare it with the original boom in Windows NT when 3.51 was released. There are few CCEAs as compared to CCAs," he said, "so those with significant Citrix skills already are looking to be able to stand out from the crowd."

Contributing Editor Kevin Kohut said that while the title is well respected, he's somewhat cautious about its long-term future. "[The CCEA] shows that you know about thin client computing," he explained, "but I think the terminal services features of the new .NET Server may make Citrix less desirable."

Our second certification in this 10th place tie, Microsoft's MCDBA, is down a couple of spots over last year's chart, but that's due to the fact that many of you achieved this title last year. Despite a relatively consistent lack of buzz around this title (you MCDBAs really are a quiet bunch), there's no apparent reduction in the MCDBA's desirability among those in the know. "Databases are still hot since [everyone] still uses them. Web sites… your bank…even the guy on the corner that offers points for anything you buy," said Contributing Editor Damir Bersinic.

"A lot of employers are seeking certified database professionals," agreed Kohut, who also offered a suggestion regarding the age-old MCDBA vs. Oracle OCP DBA debate (Oracle' s title just missed making this year's list): Get both! "I just talked with a guy this morning who was looking for at least 10 database administrators with both Microsoft SQL and Oracle experience."

#9: Sun Certified System Administrator for Solaris Operating Environment
Vendor: Sun Microsystems
Category: Linux/Unix
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 13
Buzz Score (out of 10): 3
Total: 16

Yes, that's right: Sun's Solaris Administrator title is number nine on this list. We were surprised -- after all, most of CertCities.com's readers are network administrators who work with Microsoft products. However, it's one of three Linux/Unix certifications on this year's roster, which may be indicative of a trend where Windows-based networking administrators turning to other operating systems to help diversify their skill set in this tough job market.

Not that the certification doesn't have value on its own. "Real systems still run Unix derivatives, and Solaris is a biggie," said Contributing Editor Eric Quinn.

"The corporate administrators need to distance themselves from the pack," explained Kohut. "And this certification will help."

#8: Microsoft Certified Systems Administrator (MCSA)
Vendor: Microsoft
Category: Windows Networking
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 10
Buzz Score (out of 10): 7
Total: 17

Once again, many of you who wanted this certification got it last year, which is why the MCSA has dropped to number eight this year. But while interest has waned somewhat, there's still plenty of you who want this acronym on your resume. "Although Microsoft has announced some new MCSA requirements for the .Net MCSA, this certification will continue to be hot with the CompTIA elective and Microsoft's popularity," said Contributing Editor and trainer Andy Barkl, who put this title at the very top of his personal list of hot certifications.

Neilson agreed that this cert will continue to grow in 2003, but isn't sure that's such a good thing. "Now that Microsoft is changing its path with the MCSA, it paradoxically will have much larger numbers but unfortunately will have much less value," he explained. "As originally pitched, it was intended to denote separate career paths… Now an MCSA is just a signpost on the way to an MCSE, so all it will denote is that the holder has half an MCSE."

#7: Linux+
Vendor: Computing Technology Industry Association (CompTIA)
Category: Linux/Unix
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 16
Buzz Score (out of 10): 2
Total: 18

Don't blame us for this one: It's your reader interest score that put this certification at number 7 on this chart. We know there's a whole Linux/Unix trend going on, but we're not exactly sure why you all are so very hot for this perfectly respectable yet relatively ordinary, entry-level certification from CompTIA.

Barkl speculated that "many are still interested in obtaining their Linux certification, and this one allows you to put one toe in to test the waters." Post below and let us know if he's right.

#6: Check Point Certified Security Administrator (CCSA)
Vendor: Check Point
Category: Security
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 11
Buzz Score (out of 10): 8
Total: 19

Now this one we get. After all, security certs are all the rage, and this one comes from a leading product vendor. It has also garnered great buzz over the last year thanks to its excellent showing on many salary and certification surveys.

"With Checkpoint's Firewall-1 being the most commonly-used product, it's not surprising to see so much interest in this certification," said Neilson.

"As firewalls get more complex, organizations need someone to be hands-on with the device," commented Quinn. "The one-two punch would be a CCSA with the CISSP," he added, which brings us to our next winner…

#5: Certified Information Systems Security Professional (CISSP)
Vendor: International Information Systems Security Certification Consortium (ISC2)
Category: Security
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 14
Buzz Score (out of 10): 7
Total: 21

Despite increased competition from a number of vendors (and thus this year's slightly lower buzz score), this six-hour, 250-question exam on all aspects of security just continues to gain in popularity: Twice as many of you hold it over last year, and five times as many say they'll get it this year, making it one of only two titles to climb positions on this year's chart.

We think this growth shows not only the ever-increasing interest in security, but also a drive toward more difficult certifications that will hold their value over the long haul. "Not only is the exam content so challenging, but the fact that the certification is only open to people with two years of relevant experience helps to reinforce its value to the market," said Neilson.

Barkl agreed, adding: "The self-study resources are limited, and ISC2 helps maintain a high-credibility factor for the certification by requiring a strict code of ethics for all CISSP holders."

"The only thing better than a CISSP is someone with both the CISSP and a top secret security clearance," said Quinn. "Because the CISSP isn't tied to any single vendor, it positions the person well for security management of policies, design and troubleshooting for many different security processes."

#4: Cisco Certified Network Professional (CCNP)
Vendor: Cisco Systems
Category: Security
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 16
Buzz Score (out of 10): 6
Total: 22

This mid-level networking certification from Cisco once again claims this spot on our chart, meaning that either we were too early with our 2002 prediction, or, all of you who earned Cisco's lower-level Cisco Certified Network Associate (CCNA) last year are now ready to take the next step. (Considering what happens later in this chart, we're leaning toward the latter.)

Either way, the title is still deserving of its position. Cisco certifications continue to have an excellent reputation. And the company did a lot of work this past year updating exams and adding router simulation questions to make them that much more challenging.
But the continued rise in popularity may, once again, not prove to be a good thing. "As more organizations that use the Cisco Network Academy structure move into offering CCNP level courses, the number of CCNPs will grow," commented Quinn. "Because of the large migration…this will water down some of the credibility and help push up the demand for CCIEs."

#3: Red Hat Certified Engineer (RHCE)
Vendor: Red Hat
Category: Linux/Unix
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 16
Buzz Score (out of 10): 7
Total: 23
Take some Linux and throw in a killer exam, and you've got the RHCE, a title that combines two of the biggest trends in IT certification. And that's what makes this certification so attractive -- or attractive to enough of you to bump it up four spots to put it solidly in this year's top three.

If you want to prove your high-level Linux skills, then the RHCE is for you. Not only is the title from the leading Linux distributor, but to earn it you have to pass a grueling, hands-on lab exam -- one that's impossible to braindump your way through. We said it last year and we'll say it again: If you have an RHCE, then you most likely know your stuff.

(Oh, and yes, despite last year's link, we still get e-mails every week asking about RHCE testing centers in India.)

#2: Security+
Vendor: CompTIA
Category: Security
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 18
Buzz Score (out of 10): 7
Total: 25
If your certification plans for 2003 are any indication (and we hope they are, considering that's what this entire story is based upon), this entry-level security title from CompTIA is about to become the new darling of the certification world.

"The plain fact is that security is a big topic these days, and having some kind of certification is important," said Bersinic. "Other certs do exist…but Security+ might be a bit hotter because it is a starting point to the other, more advanced certs."

"Although this is an expensive exam at $225 in North America, many will use it as an introduction to the network security field," commented Barkl. "Let's just hope they don't consider themselves experts at security until they have the experience!"

We'll admit it: We were pretty sure, being the newest certification on the hottest topic out there, that Security+ would be number 1 on this year's list. But there's one established certification that's had a resurgence we weren't quite expecting, which brings us to our hottest certification for 2003...

#1: Cisco Certified Internetwork Expert (CCIE)
Vendor: Cisco Systems
Category: Networking
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 18
Buzz Score (out of 10): 9
Total: 27

Sure, the CCIE's got great buzz -- in fact, it walked away with the title of "Best High-Level Certification" in our Reader's Choice Awards earlier this year.

But the CCIE didn't even come close to making list last year, so few of you were planning to get it. So why all this interest now?

Perhaps last year the title was still recovering from the collapse of IT salaries. We all remember the horror stories: The shock of hearing about an unemployed CCIE or -- even worse -- ones that were making less than $100,000.

Sure that's tongue-in-cheek, but the sentiment is true: Before, many people were hung up on certification equaling a specific pay scale. Now, with so many more certifications on the market (and so many ways to cheat through them), reputation means more.

"This is the "Himalayas" of certification," said Neilson. "Now that the job market has tightened, people are wanting to readily demonstrate the level of skills that they have to differentiate themselves."

"I see CCIE acquisition used more for job security than for attaining a new position," said Quinn. "As the economy picks up, CCIEs will be in more demand."

"In my opinion, the CCIE is still the best cert to have," commented Kohut. "Everyone knows that there are no paper CCIEs out there. And Cisco still commands a healthy market share."

Bersinic speculated that the increased interest in this title might also be because of its security-related aspects. "Though Cisco's CCIE only comprises some security elements, it deals with the most critical aspects of security: access to the network. And then there's the demand for Cisco certifications overall, as we mentioned earlier with the CCNP.

The CCIE was the only title that all five of our contributing editors listed in their personal top 10 lists -- three of them put it at the top spot. This, combined with the certification's excellent reputation and your all-important reader interest score, makes us confident that the CCIE will, indeed, be the hottest certification for 2003.

What are your picks for 2003? Post 'em below!

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More articles by Becky Nagel:

• 10 Hottest Certifications for 2005
  
• CertCities.com's 3rd Annual Readers' Choice Awards
  
• Q&A: Novell Certs Go Linux
  
• Q&A: Don Field and Rick Stiffler, Cisco Certification