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Greg Neilson
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The Good Ole Days |
| In the late '90s, IT professionals enjoyed high demand and even higher salaries. For those of you longing for a return to this golden age, Greg Neilson predicts severe disappointment. |
| by Greg Neilson |
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4/30/2002 -- The late '90s were heady times in IT. I lived in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1997 until early 2000, so I was lucky enough to be near the epicenter. Not only was there all of the considerable dotcom activity, but at the same time most other companies were making extensive investments in upgrading their IT infrastructure in preparation for Y2K.
Since the dotcom crash in April 2000, many of us in IT have been wondering when the downturn will end and the "good ole days" will be back again. It's becoming more and more obvious to me that this won't happen -- sure, things will get better than they are today, but we won't ever get back to that unsustainable level of activity we had then.
I'm not trying to pretend that I'm the first to say this – I recall seeing some industry analysts make this point in the middle of last year. However, the recent wave of profit warnings issued by many of the major IT players underlines this premise. I certainly think we'll see some improvement from our current position, but as the IT industry matures we will probably move to a sustainable level of IT activity, a new kind of what we might think of as "normal."This will be the case for investment in IT (hardware, software and professional services), but more to the point for you, our readers, in the employment of IT professionals.
Even though I think things will get better on the IT job scene, the reduced demand for staff relative to the pre-April 2000 levels means that salaries and conditions will continue to be generally less than we had become used to. This isn't to say we'll end up being paid minimum wage, but the drop in demand means that those looking to change jobs may have to accept less than they currently receive now. This also means that those who don't move will find that their current salary may not rise significantly until inflation increases the market pay rates above their current salary level. Given that inflation is relatively low in most major economies nowadays, this could take some time. Either way, this means that real salaries in IT will fall from the previous levels.
Following the same logic through, I also believe that this reduced demand will mean that some of those who were working in IT before may need to give serious consideration about whether they should start to look at other career options outside of IT. Generally speaking, these will have been the poorer performers who only had jobs because their employer had little other choice -- use these people or go without (or pay more to get the people who really could do the job). Now that the employment demand has dropped, these poor performers are being passed over for those who have a demonstrated history of achievement and have a compelling career story to tell. Also, those who haven't kept their skills current will probably also find things very difficult.
I'm not trying to tell everyone that the sky is falling. In the long term, IT will continue to be a good career option, but things probably won't again be as great as they were in the late '90s. We will still be paid well compared to other professions, but not to the levels we have been accustomed. This means we are going to need to adjust our thinking as to what we can reasonable expect in salary and conditions from employers in the future. Perhaps some of us will have some great stories to tell our grandkids – "Sure, those were crazy times in the late 90s, and I was there in the middle of it. Did I ever tell you about . . .?".
What's your view of the road ahead in IT? Please let me know by posting your comments below. 
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Greg Neilson, MCSE+Internet, MCNE, PCLP, is a Contributing Editor for Microsoft Certified Professional Magazine and a manager at a large IT services firm in Australia. He's the author of Lotus Domino Administration in a Nutshell (O'Reilly and Associates, ISBN 1-56592-717-6). You can reach him at Attn: Greg.
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More articles by Greg Neilson:
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There are 104  user Comments for “The Good Ole Days”
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Page 10 of 11
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| 5/23/02: JP says: |
Of course we won't return to the heyday of the late 90s. Irresponsible investments from venture capitalists (among others) who were eager to cash in with out a stable business model (or nothing at all) shows just how stupid we all were to blindly follow. Department of Labor reports continually show that the need for IT professionals greatly outweighs supply. Give this statistic alone, one could argue that the market will continue to demand *high* salaries for those possessing those skills. |
| 5/23/02: anon says: |
I can't believe it. Did the International Trainee Network read the postings or just put his mind in neutral and start typing. Why in the hell does this bozo think that if everyone is bitching about how hard it is to get a job, anyone who has read this far will help another foreigner come over and take another job. SHEESH! DA NERVE! (or stupidity!) |
| 5/23/02: Oasis Rocks says: |
I'm proud to be a Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer (MCSE), positive thinking and perserverance will make you succeed in this business. Just believe in yourself and stop listening to negative people. I'm a rookie in this field with just my certs and 6 months experience, I don't have a high paying job yet but I know I'm heading in the right direction. |
| 5/26/02: John says: |
Do you expect old world technology such as type-writers to make a come back? After all, they don't need a UPS, virus protection, reboots, upgrades, networking, monitoring etc. They are cheaper to run. Sounds silly? Because it is! Of course, IT&T will make a come back!!! New technologies are always appearing and require smart people ... experienced or inexperienced. After all what relevance does Fortran or Uniface 4GL programming, MS-DOS, MS Windows for Workgroups have in todays market? Absolutley none. |
| 5/28/02: Anonymous says: |
I too am a 'career changer' I worked computers back when punch cards were in huge trays. When the switch to 5.25 floppys started, I left the field for the family, kids, blah blah blah and a hairdressing job for 25 years. Burnout? That was an understatement when I enrolled in Technical College and listened to the instructors telling me that making 50k when I graduated was a piece of cake. This was 1998. Now it is 2002 and I still cant find even an entry level job. I have a few certs, the employer over looks those and checks the experience and longevity I have. Which is very little. I was one of those that took the other job for a buck more and now I am struggling. I am not a quitter and I feel this will all turn around eventually. Also, give me some feedback on gender. I am a woman in a new field. I have noticed that most of the employers are looking for young men that have spent time in the military. I have 20 more years to work and am not afraid of hard work or taking a lesser position to work my way to something comfortable. But, when employers see a woman in her 40's with an associates degree and a few certs, they seem to look the other way. |
| 5/31/02: Mark says: |
I've read everything posted up to now, and have some agreements, and dis-agreements with what has been said so far. I think what it boils down to is what is your passion. Mine happens to be computers and the technology surrounding them. I've taught myself through experience and reading to obtain certifications, better jobs, etc. Let's face it. The goal of a career isn't all about the money. My father was a minister, retired now and laughs at my salary gripes. He's never even made a third of what I have at positions I complained about. Bottom line is, look at where your passion is. IT will always be here, and they will always want specialists, and generalists to provide a convenient service to those that have no desire to learn what we love. Will people get weeded out, yes. Not due to performance, or skill level, but I think more to what they thought IT was, and the reality that it is. Bootcamps make money by telling people that you can make millions, etc. What they don't tell you is that out of the 500,000 jobs that are needed, aren't all MCSE's. My father spent a very satisfying career doing what he did, and definately not due to salary. He found his passion and went with it. All fields have ups and downs, but what I think what everyone needs to ask themselves is, is this what I'm passionate about, or was I just taken in by the glitter and bright lights. The medical field is highering right now with bonuses, and some good salary all depending, but I'm not going to nursing school. Anyway, enough babbling, just thought I'd throw something in that no one else has seemed to consider. |
| 6/1/02: William R. says: |
I have A+ and MCSE, I'm thinking of pursuing a bachelor's degree in computer science, will getting a degree make a difference on finding a job in the IT field? By the way I have little work experience in IT. |
| 6/10/02: Anonymous says: |
william, a degree in CS will focus mainly on software development. you'll take classes in either c++ or java and learn things like algorithm development, data structures, object-oriented analysis/design, software engineering principles, computer organization and logic (read: assembly language and circuit design), and lots of humanities and other electives. it's a huge undertaking, but by no means unattainable. do some research to find out the courses you'd be taking at local colleges and try to get some more advice from others who have been through it. having a BS in CS may help your resume (it definitely won't hurt it), but there's no guarantee to finding a job, aside from persistence and motivation. if you've got the time and patience, a good idea is to get into a decent school that has strong industry ties, b/c they will most likely have some sort of co-op program. NC State in raleigh, nc has one of the largest co-op programs with companies like cisco, ibm, fujitsu, microsoft, john deere, and many others. as you pursue your degree, you spend every other semester working full-time as a co-op to get some solid experience. i know a kid that co-oped with cisco for a semester and they trained him and paid for his CCNA. not a bad deal...guy got paid for working, got experience at cisco, got certified, and got credit toward graduating. the good thing about co-oping is that many people who graduate end up working permanently with their co-op company b/c they've already been trained. so if you've got the time and the motivation to make it all the way through, go for the BS. if you do, make sure you keep your GPA up so you can qualify for those co-ops, and make friends with some of the professors so you can have some good references. |
| 8/30/02: Anonymous says: |
Many of these schools that crank out students are now paying the price. Ameritrain is closing its doors. If you lost $ to them, check out a class action suit website at www.asfb.org |
| 9/13/02: Lisa says: |
The thing a lot of people are forgetting is that Certs were not meant to be a way for newbies to get their foot in the door. They were originally intended for seasoned IT professionals. They were supposed to be a way of showing employers that you have the knowledge and EXPERIENCE to be considered a guru of sorts in that area. They were never intended for newbies. The idea was that ONLY seasoned professionals would have the experience to pass them. Somehow that all went wrong and I had thought that with Win2k Microsoft was going to fix that. Honestly at this point I dont feel that if you already have certs and the experiance you need to bother to continue to update your certs. Im so busy administering a Win2k network I honestly dont have the time to go take a test in it. |
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