2/4/2003 -- Well, the New Year has commenced, and no one is seeing nor forecasting signs of any upswing in IT hiring. There are larger factors at play in the current economy, such as the prospect of war and possible deflation, both of which mean that -- at least for the first half of 2003 -- there is too much uncertainty for business to commit to large-scale IT investments (and therefore hiring). There are signs of this everywhere; for example, Microsoft recently announced would be providing security hotfix support for NT 4.0 until the end of the 2004 (extending it from the end of this year), which suggests it sees many Microsoft customers holding off upgrading from NT 4.0 to Windows 2000 or 2003 this year.

I would love to be able to say that we are at the beginning of the end of the IT recession, however it's probably more correct to call it the end of the beginning. Companies have already shed their IT fat, much of their muscle and in may cases are cutting out bone already. Therefore this month I will discuss a few areas you might want to consider when making career plans for 2003. I'm not trying to make everyone reach for the razor blades, but I do want people to better understand current trends so that they can do their best to be prepared no matter what happens.

The possible threat of offshore outsourcing promises to further increase this year. This is not the place to say what should happen, but we as individuals we do need to think about how we will maintain our value and employability in this industry. Gartner is bullish about this in its 2003 predictions, and a recent report from Foote Partners suggests that 35 to 45 percent of full-time jobs in North America will shift to contractors, consultants, part-timers or offshore by 2005. To counter this, they suggest people retrain in project management or areas such as security or wireless.

No matter what job in what company we have today, we do need to think of it being temporary. It is career suicide to get comfortable and complacent, and becoming almost semi-retired while still in that job. In the past I've seen people treat their job like a cat that finds a nice warm cozy place to nap. It may feel great in the short term, but taking a longer view: These folks will one day find themselves unemployable and on the scrap heap, lacking current skills and with a recent career history of mediocre job performance.

Another point to consider when you make your development plans for the year: Gartner recently released a report called "Predicts 2003: Gartner View for IT Professionals," which discusses how IT professionals can maximize their value in 2003. (Click here for an MIS Magazine article that summarizes the report -- the full results are not available online.) Gartner's suggestions are much more about developing our business skills in using technology rather merely delving into product X or technology Y.

What then does this mean for the world of certification? I interpret it to mean that certification is a useful tool to demonstrate basic technical competence and a desire to keep current, but over-reliance on technical skills alone -- as well as multiple certifications -- could be a waste of time and, at worst, perhaps even dangerous. Not that I'm denigrating technical competence, which is a given for anyone wanting to stay employable, but without some business sense and good soft skills, the usefulness of those technical skills is of limited value. At the same time, with so many qualified candidates available, those with certification and experience will continue to have an advantage over those with experience alone during the candidate screening process. (And I'm also firmly of the view that certified staff generally perform better at work as well.)

Along these same lines, I'd like to close with something interesting that I came across during my holiday reading that is a great illustration in the sense of self and purpose: Three stonemasons meet up in a pub and start up a conversation. The first says, "I make a living." The second says, "I'm the best stonemason in town." The third says, "I'm building a cathedral."

The second stonemason has commendable pride in his work, but it is the third that really understands why he is a stonemason. Now, what do you do?

What's your take on the current state of IT employment? Post your thoughts below!