1/15/2007 -- As the new year gets under way, convergence -- of disparate IP, VPN, broadband and other networks -- is the thing, says market watcher Infonetics Research. Service providers have convergence on the brain, Infonetics indicates -- in large part because of changing traffic patterns and new (or emerging) applications. In any case, service providers cited broadband Internet, metro Ethernet and IPTV as the top three catalysts for change.

In any event, says Infonetics researcher Michael Howard, legacy transports -- such as ATM, frame relay, leased lines -- appear to be on the way out. "Carriers are experiencing decreases in legacy service revenue...and know the downward trend will continue, but they expect big increases from IP VPN, VoIP and metro Ethernet revenue, and providers planning broadband and IPTV expect sizeable revenue increases from those services, as well," Howard said in a statement. "A majority of carriers have started deploying significant numbers of Ethernet customer connections, and the study indicates that a good carrier Ethernet product is the best way to penetrate a new service provider account."

The cellular base station backhaul segment is particularly hot, according to Infonetics: over 50 percent of service providers offer mobile voice and data services, for example; of these, 100 percent have built (or are building) their own transport networks to do the backhauling.

Elsewhere, Ethernet seems to be the most popular broadband aggregation transport: 100 percent of EU survey respondents said they'd tap Ethernet for this purpose, while 67 percent of Asia-Pacific and 60 percent of North American respondents gave Ethernet the nod, as well. Ethernet's gain is ATM's loss; as a result, Infonetics expects ATM usage to drop precipitously.

And while service providers in the EU might be disproportionately more likely to embrace Ethernet as a broadband aggregation transport -- at least relative to their counterparts in other global regions -- they're also more likely to experience trouble integrating new technologies or gear: Slightly more than half of service provider respondents in the EU (57 percent) anticipated integration issues -- significantly higher than their counterparts in the Asia-Pacific (33 percent) or North American (27 percent) regions.

Finally, 96 percent of service provider respondents have IP/MPLS networks, 89 percent have Ethernet, 82 percent ATM and 75 percent frame relay networks. -- Stephen Swoyer