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...Home ... Editorial ... Columns ..Column Story Saturday: April 5, 2014


 Dulaney on Certs  
Emmett Dulaney
Emmett Dulaney


 Demand and Supply, and Supply, and Supply...
With one in 1,800 people holding a certification, Emmett thinks it's no wonder that the value of certs have gone down. Plus, certification news and Book of the Week.
by Emmett Dulaney  
4/16/2008 -- According to a recent press release, more than 1 million Cisco certifications have been issued since the creation of the program.

Mind you, this isn't the number of exams taken (many certifications require multiple exams), nor is it the number of attempts or anything else equally reasonable. Rather, this is the number of certifications actually issued -- and it's a number I find astounding.

Not only is 1 million greater than the population of many small countries, but out of that 1 million, "nearly 20,000" are for CCIE -- the Ph.D. of Cisco certifications. This means that 2 percent of all those holding Cisco certifications hold the highest certification from that vendor (it's not clear how many of those certifications are current).

As large a number as 1 million is, it's not the frontrunner. According to Microsoft, 2,254,381 certifications have been issued since the certification program began in 1992, which averages to over 140,000 a year. Of those, 185 are certified as Microsoft Certified Architects (MCAs), currently the highest level of Microsoft certification. Among those with the second-highest level of certification -- the Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer (MCSE) -- 113,454 are certified in Windows Server 2003, and over 685,000 are certified in older technologies.

If you add together just those who've held either a Microsoft or Cisco certification, then factor it by the approximately 6 billion people in the world, that means that on average, one of out every 1,800 people has been certified. Add to that the "more than one million CompTIA certifications [that] have been earned worldwide," the half-a-million certifications that have come from Novell, the 50,000 from LPI and so on. Before you know it, the supply of certifications issued is immeasurable.

Given this type of increase in supply, is it any wonder that when viewed in even the most simplistic, "Econ 101" perspective, the value of certification has gone down?

Windows Server 2008 MCITP Exams Available
Two key Microsoft Certified IT Professional (MCITP) exams on Windows Server 2008 became available this month. Those enrolled in Microsoft's "First to Know" program received registration/savings information through e-mail on:

  • 70-646: Windows Server 2008, Server Administrator
  • 70-647: Windows Server 2008, Enterprise Administrator

Domains and objectives can be found here.

New Oracle Enterprise Linux Exam
Late last month, the Enterprise Linux Fundamentals exam from Oracle (exam 1Z0-402) went live. Consisting of 87 questions that must be answered in 120 minutes (with 57 correct to pass), the exam is administered through Prometric testing centers and costs $195.

The exam topics include shell basics, messaging, multi-user concepts, printing, process management and more. The complete list of topics and objectives can be found here.

LPI Creating Security Exam
The Linux Professional Institute (LPI) has announced that it's creating an upper-level, vendor-neutral security exam to become an elective in the LPIC-3 (enterprise) certification track. The exam will go through beta testing at the end of this year and is expected to go live at the end of February 2009.

Those interested in taking the beta exams when they become available, or in being a part of the exam's development, can sign up here.

Symantec Updating Exams
To keep the Symantec Certified Specialist certification current, many of the exams are in the process of being updated. Currently, becoming certified requires passing a single exam in a specific area. Plans are for the Specialist certification to continue in that manner are in the works, and upper-level certifications are being added.

Among the first of the new exams, Veritas Storage Foundation 5.0 Administration for Unix (exam 250-250) is now available. It consists of 60 questions that must be answered within 90 minutes with a minimum score of 61 percent correct.

The exams are administered through Prometric testing centers and typically cost $150. More information on the planned exams can be found here.

(ISC)2 Scholarship Deadline Approaching
April 30 marks this year's deadline for applying for the Information Security Scholarship.

Up to eight full-time post-graduate students can receive one-year scholarships of up to $12,500 to help fund information security research projects. To qualify, you must be pursuing an advanced degree in information security at an accredited university.

This year's winners will be announced in June. According to an (ISC)2 press release, last year's winners funded projects involving "access control; policy; network threat detection, analysis and mitigation; risk analysis; and cryptography."

More information on the scholarship can be found here.

Book of the Week: 'Network Security Technologies and Solutions'
There can be little doubt that security is the word of the year, as indicated by the influx of new exams the updates to others.

One of the vendors with the most experience in this field is Cisco, and Network Security Technologies and Solutions, the new CCIE book from Cisco Press, is worth more than a gander.

Coming in at just under 800 pages, it's an impressive digest that traverses the line between tutorial and reference book. The 25 chapters run the gamut of such topics as cryptography and network access control. Particularly strong are the chapters on group encrypted transport VPN, dynamic multi-point VPN, secure socket layer VPN and multi-protocol label switching VPN.

If you're looking for a book that will help you pass the CCIE Security exam, look no further. And if you're looking for a book for any lower-level security certification (Security+ from CompTIA, for example), you'll also find this text to be exactly what you need.


Emmett Dulaney is the author of several books on Linux, Unix and certification. He can be reached at .

 


More articles by Emmett Dulaney:

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There are 33 CertCities.com user Comments for “Demand and Supply, and Supply, and Supply...”
Page 1 of 4
4/16/08: Anonymous says: Your 1 in 1,800 calculation has one major fallacy in that you assume that each unique cert belongs to a unique individual. How many of those CCIEs also have CCNAs, CCNPs, etc. How many MCSEs, also have MCSAs, and MCPs? How many have certifications from more than one organization? While I agree that certifications have become much more common, I think your way of doing math exaggerates things a bit.
4/16/08: Anonymous says: That's about the stupidest article I've read in a long time. Perception affects reality and you're not helping. One million certs in 16 years is not that many. Probably over half have already expired. Does anybody care about a cert I got in 1995? Why don't you just tell me to give up because I'm going to die someday. That'll also make me want to read more of your stuff.
4/17/08: Rick Sline from Houston, TX says: The numbers logic seems flawed as other commenters have mentioned. I hold 5 microsoft certifications - MCP, MCSD, MCAD, MCSD.NET and MCT. I'm looking at picking up an MCPD or 2 which will also give me MCTS's. If my math is right that's 9. I might pickup a cert or two in SQL Server, maybe an MCSE or whatever it is now. I would imagine of those of us who are certified, the average number of certifications is at least 4. When I worked for a training co. one of my fellow instructors have about 20 certs from various organizations. I would take exception that MCSE is the 2nd highest Microsoft Certification. I believe in terms of overall technical difficulty it's MCPD - Enterprise. What is of continuing concern is there are a bunch of unqualified IT people getting work out there. Most business people don't seek certified people plus a certification by itself doesn't guarantee ability to get the job done. I get underbid on programming gigs only to be called back months later to fix real messes, often once the application has gone live - the customer is out of money and very hostile.
4/17/08: Dave from Pennsylvania says: Flawed article, I agree. The MCSE I hold on NT4 is obsolete, and the one I hold for Win 2000 isn't far behind. All the numbers aside - is the value of certification waning or not? This wasn't really addressed, nor any arguments made as to why.
4/17/08: Andy from Seattle says: Flawed, no. Showing one side of a coin, yes. Those numbers are pretty hefty, but considering that the IT workforce is over 30 million WW and average time in an IT position over a career is 30+ years, the number is not significant from a statistical perspective. It would be interesting to see what certs are held by entry level people and determine how effective that was in helping them break into the IT workforce and what credentials are held by people with tenure in the workforce and what impact it has had for them.
4/17/08: Roy from Oregon says: Hi there, Emmett Dulaney gave quite the unfair and incomplete argument against the value of certifications, using a logic that doesn't hold up under his so-called "Econ 101" perspective. In his article titled "DEMAND AND SUPPLY, AND SUPPLY, AND SUPPLY...", he went down the list of where the supply of certifications is coming from. Yet he covered nothing on demand. In Econ 101, you learn that you have to factor in BOTH supply and demand to determine the market value of something -- in this case, certification. Using Dulaney's logic, if there's a certification held by one person, that's going to be the most valuable certification out there. And that couldn't be further from the truth. Unless, of course, there are 15 employers competing for the ability to hire anyone with that certification. That's demand and supply working together to determine value. And if there are 50 million certified IT professionals, along with 100 million IT jobs that favor certified applicants, certifications will hold a high value. Whether the value of certifications is increasing or decreasing overall, I do not know -- the true test of value is on a transaction-by-transaction level. But if you're going to cite Econ 101, please do it accurately. If demand is decreasing, note that as well. If it's increasing, note that. Just don't give it a partial answer and use that for fear-mongering on the state of the IT certifications or the industry as a whole. That's my two cents, for what it's worth. Roy
4/18/08: Bruce from Owensboro, KY says: I think more research in "crunching" the numbers is needed. I am a multi cert holder as are some of my co-workers. You also mentioned this is total number of certs so it's more than possible that one could be and MCSE in 3.51, 4.0, 2000 and 2003 soon 2008 while also holding CISCO and or Novell certs. You may find the number to be less than 1 in 1,800 especially if you subtract those certs that are not current.
4/22/08: ADE ADESOTE from NIGERIA says: You got it all wrong Dulaney, you need to come to Africa and see the level of our IT knowledge or computer appreciation and the number of IT certified professional in sub-sahara Africa. It's a far cry from what you described above. I have over 6 certifications from different organizations and this is a big deal if a go to some smaller African countries looking for a contract or a job
4/24/08: David Marsh from UK says: I have to agree with the comments, I have 9 certs, there are tow main groups those that pusue certs and those that dont. Of those that do its far more likely for them to have at least 3. This changes to calculation to 1:6000 possibly 1:18000 in worst case. As mentioned they have factored in demand, the demand for Cisco is huge, other certs although difficult I would be hard pressed to say they really make a big difference to someone that can sell themselves or network and has some exp. I think the reality is certs have been around a while and the love affair is ending for some employers, the system has as many flaws as any other, there are many poor people in IT both with and without certs. Its no longer seen as a suitable differentiator by most employers on its own right.
2/13/12: Alpaslan from TCyUhDxSwH says: Hi Dave,I have to think you meant MCSE, not MSCE -- but I sppuose that just reinforces the idea that nobody knows what they really mean, as that's a hugely common mistake.Regards,Jeremy
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