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7/15/2007 -- As recently as last year, I viewed the Linux market as one in which a number of companies are fighting to become the de facto standard. In fact, one of the complaints I occasionally heard (and passed along) was over the confusion that inevitably came when someone spoke of "Linux." Did they mean Red Hat, SuSE, Mandriva, something else? While they all share the same kernel, they each differ in their tools and support, among other things that may matter a great deal to someone considering adoption.
In many ways -- and it pains me to say this -- I think the market has settled now, and there seem to be de facto winners in many categories. While this is a positive for the market -- a common platform can lead to greater use of resources -- it's also a blow; I've been a fan of many distributions (and still mourn the passing of Caldera) and hate to see them relegated to the domain of hobbyists and history.
In the business world, Red Hat has become the de facto Linux server standard. While a number of companies once looked like they could give Red Hat a good run, the numbers today -- from the mundane to the meaningful -- tell a different story:
1. Do a Google search for "Red Hat" Linux. Over 66 million native results are returned and, just as importantly, seven sponsored links -- companies paying money for you to visit their sites. All of the links are relevant to the operating system distribution (not related to the Red Hat Ladies Cancer Group, etc.). Change the search phrase to any other Linux distribution and notice what happens to the number of native results and the number of sponsored links.
2. Oracle, a company well-established in the halls of the Fortune 500, is now supporting Linux and trying to make money from a product that's not its own. Before you question the rationale behind this, look at how many years you have to go back in the list of the richest billionaires to not find Oracle CEO Larry Ellison there. This isn't a company known for making mistakes. Which implementation of Linux is it supporting? Red Hat.
3. At Amazon.com, books about Red Hat's operating systems outnumber those of the nearest rival by about 2.5-to-1 -- and those of many others by about 10-to-1. Since books are time-consuming to write and expensive to publish, this is an indication of how much more willing authors and publishers are to take a chance on there being a market for Red Hat information as opposed to others.
4. Go to a Web-hosting site that services small to medium-sized businesses and see what they're using. Odds are, you'll find the Apache/Red Hat combination similar to that shown in Figure 1.
[Fig. 1. Click on image for larger view.] |
5. On the behemoth career site Monster.com, you can specify keywords to limit your IT job searches to employers looking for specific skills and experience. The following list (compiled on June 25, 2007) shows in alphabetical order the number of job postings that mentioned each of these distributions or keywords beneath the categories Computer Services, Computers, Hardware, Computers, Software, Consulting Services, Information Technology, Internet/E-Commerce and Telecommunications:
Debian (60)
Freespire (0)
Gentoo (15)
KNOPPIX (2)
Linspire (0)
Mandriva (0)
Red Hat (507)
Slackware (4)
SuSE (198)
Ubuntu (18)
Yellow Dog (0)
The business desktop world is still too uncertain for me to call, but it looks like Ubuntu is winning in the home Linux operating system market. This distribution continues to win awards and accolades for its features and has a devout following even though it's been in existence for a shorter period of time than most of its contemporaries. Other things to consider:
- When InformationWeek wanted something to compare to Vista (Microsoft's newest desktop operating system), what did it choose? Ubuntu (see "Ubuntu Linux vs. Windows Vista: The Battle For Your Desktop"). Ubuntu held its own in most categories.
- Dell has recently agreed to start loading Ubuntu Linux onto desktop and laptops. It has also agreed to start selling a few models through the massive Wal-Mart distribution network. Currently, those models are only loaded with Vista, but can models loaded with Ubuntu Linux be far behind given the price-consciousness of many Wal-Mart shoppers?
Some of the other categories -- such as embedded Linux, which the user doesn't really see or even think about -- are still too close to call at this point, but Yellow Dog is certainly picking up steam.
Again, as recently as last year, I would've been more than willing to debate distributions with you, but these more recent developments tell a fairly compelling story about who the emerging, de facto leaders are in the Linux world.
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